What chance to ESPN’s FPI and SP+ give LSU vs. USC

Here’s what ESPN’s projection systems say about LSU’s chances this weekend.

It’s game week at LSU. After a long summer, football is finally back. With the season’s return, so are weekly projections.

ESPN’s FPI and SP+ ratings always have some thoughts. So, what do the projections say about LSU’s season opener against USC?

According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, LSU has a 55.4% chance of securing the win. That’s about right given where LSU and USC sit in FPI.

The Tigers rank No. 12 with a 14.6 rating. USC isn’t far behind at No. 18 with an 11.1 rating.

SP+ has a more favorable outlook. Bill Connelly’s system has LSU winning 41-31. A 10-point win would cover the spread by a touchdown. That should send LSU fans home happy, especially given the anxiety from previous Game 1 losses.

As far as full-season projections go, FPI gives LSU a 4.3% chance of winning the SEC and a 26.1% shot at making the playoff.

Those playoff chances would be boosted win a win this weekend. USC is LSU’s strongest nonconference opponent. It would boost the resume and provide the Tigers with some room for error in conference play.

SP+ projecting a total of 72 points comes as no surprise. Both of these offenses excelled last year while the defenses were among the worst in their respective conferences.

[autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag] and Lincoln Riley both hired all-star defensive staffs hoping to bring some stability to that side of the ball.

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