Sean McVay accomplished a lot in his first season with the Los Angeles Rams, leading them to an 11-5 record, NFC West title and their first playoff berth since 2004. He was also named NFL Coach of the Year for the critical role he played in the Rams’ sharp turnaround from 4-12 in 2016 to 11-5 in 2017.
Despite consistently being one of the best coaches in football, that was the only time McVay won the award. And looking to 2022, it’s unlikely he’ll win it again this season.
According to Tipico Sportsbook, McVay’s odds to win Coach of the Year are +2000. That means a $100 wager would return a profit of $2,000. There are seven coaches with better odds than McVay, and he’s tied with 12 other coaches at +2000.
Among those with better odds than McVay are Brandon Staley, Brian Daboll, Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel, Kevin O’Connell and Nathaniel Hackett. You’ll notice a common theme among those coaches. Many of them are early in their careers, with the exception of Shanahan. Daboll, McDaniel, O’Connell and Hackett are all first-year coaches, much like McVay was in 2017.
Voters of this award typically favor newer coaches who are attempting to turn around a franchise and find success with what might be an underwhelming roster full of unknowns. It’s why despite being one of the best coaches year in and year out, Bill Belichick has only won the award three times, and all between 2003-2010.
With McVay, he has a star-studded roster that’s expected to make the playoffs and compete for a championship. The same goes for the Bills, and Sean McDermott has even longer odds than McVay at +3000.
Unless the Rams or Bills go undefeated, or they win a considerable number of games without one or some of their top players, neither McVay nor McDermott are likely to win Coach of the Year. It’ll probably go to a coach with a worse roster and lower expectations.