[jwplayer lwWY8EG1]
As the final weeks of the regular season wind down, what seemed elusive for so long is nearly in grasp for the Gators. Florida is 6-1, and with three games left in the season (for now), it should be favored in every matchup until the SEC Championship Game. From there, it can start to think about the College Football Playoff.
Get to the conference title game with no more blemishes, and the formula is pretty simple: win and you’re in, lose and you go home (or to a New Year’s Six Bowl, more precisely).
At this moment in time, what exactly are the odds of that happening? Well, if you’re a Gators fan, it’s not exactly what you want to see.
According to ESPN, UF has just a 12.2% chance of making the CFP. Those odds are the 10th best odds in the nation, and when you see that the teams ahead of Florida include USC, Cincinnati, BYU and Northwestern, it may be hard to believe.
But the Gators’ chances at making the CFP come down almost entirely to the likely matchup with Alabama. And right now, their odds of earning that one aren’t great.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Florida’s chances at winning the SEC aren’t much better than its chances at making the playoff, as the odds are just 16.2 percent.
UF has one of the nation’s elite offenses, but it’s clear that at the moment, the analytics don’t think the Gators are prepared to slow down the Alabama attack.
Here’s the full list of playoff odds.
| TEAM (RECORD) | MAKE PLAYOFF | WIN TITLE |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama (7-0) | 94.2% | 54.2% |
| Ohio State (4-0) | 71.1% | 18.7% |
| Notre Dame (8-0) | 59.3% | 7.6% |
| Cincinnati (8-0) | 35.3% | 2.3% |
| Clemson (7-1) | 33.5% | 8.2% |
| Oregon (3-0) | 26.9% | 1.9% |
| USC (3-0) | 14.8% | 0.8% |
| BYU (9-0) | 14.1% | 0.8% |
| Northwestern (5-0) | 13.9% | 0.8% |
| Florida (6-1) | 12.2% | 1.9% |
| Texas A&M (5-1) | 11.6% | 0.8% |
| Wisconsin (2-1) | 9.2% | 1.9% |
| Miami (7-1) | 1.3% | <.1% |
| Oklahoma (6-2) | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Indiana (4-1) | 0.7% | <.1% |
| Washington (2-0) | 0.7% | <.1% |
| Georgia (5-2) | 0.2% | <.1% |
| Texas (5-2) | 0.1% | <.1% |
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