Now that Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has vetoed a trade to the New Orleans Saints and any other NFL team, if the Saints want him, they’ll have to land him as a free agent. Carr is expected to be released before the Feb. 15 deadline that activates more than $40 million in guarantees over the next two years. The nine-year veteran visited New Orleans, has been introduced to key members of the organization and visited the team’s facilities last week before making his decision. Perhaps Carr liked what the Saints had to offer, but was not interested in the Raiders getting a return for his departure. If that’s the case and Carr finds his way to the Big Easy as their next starting quarterback, what might his free agent contract look like?
There are a couple of paths that the Saints and Carr could take depending on the market he finds. Make no mistake, Carr and his representation will take time to visit with other teams no matter how much they liked New Orleans. Teams like the New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers are among many NFL clubs in search of a starting quarterback for 2023. It’s in the best interest of Carr and his team to rustle up multiple offers. If the Saints end up having to compete with other teams, his contract could look very similar to Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Cousins signed a one-year $35 million contract with Minnesota last season. That may end up being the average per year that Carr’s club will look to capture. If so, the Saints would be wise to engage in a multi-year deal to spread out some of the guarantees (much like Los Angeles Rams passer Matthew Stafford’s deal) and use their typical void year structure in the meanwhile. Here’s what that contract could look like:
We’re projecting terms on a 3-year, $105 million deal (average per year: $35 million) with a $50 million signing bonus and $60 million guaranteed in total.
- 2023: $1.165 million base salary, $10 million signing bonus prorate ($11.165 million cap hit)
- 2024: $11.9 million base salary, $10 million roster bonus, $10 million signing bonus prorate ($21.9 million cap hit)
- 2025: $31.9 million base salary, $10 million signing bonus prorate ($41.9 million cap hit)
- 2026 (void): $10 million signing bonus prorate ($10 million cap hit)
- 2027 (void): $10 million signing bonus prorate ($10 million cap hit)
This would allow the Saints to keep the cap hit in 2023 manageable, plan ahead to restructure the roster bonus in 2024 and backload the deal. That way if things work out, the Saints could extend him to drop that massive 2025 hit into future years which they would add to his contract anyway.
Alternatively, though unlikely, Carr could find that he does not have the market he’d hoped in free agency in which case the Saints could sign him to a Jameis Winston-like deal: a 2-year agreement worth $35 million with $28 million guaranteed. They could leverage a large signing bonus just like a multi-year structure would, but build it so that the team and Carr could split after the first year with minimal damage.
One way or another, if the Saints want to land Carr as their next starting quarterback they have the resources and savvy to get it done. But the biggest questions will be whether or not Carr actually wants to be in New Orleans and what his services will drum up elsewhere. A lot of teams could get desperate at this position, but the Saints should remain level-headed and stick to their prices as they often do.
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