ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that momentum is growing to bring 22 NBA teams to Orlando for the league’s planned restart in July, which would mean that the 2019-20 regular season is not yet over.
The season has been on hold since March 12 due to COVID-19.
“The NBA and NBPA are also mindful of generating revenue on the resumption of a season, and playing regular season and play-in games at Disney’s ESPN Wide World of Sports will generate more money than simply restarting the season with the playoffs,” Wojnarowski wrote.
Playing regular-season games would also help teams build chemistry in game situations before the playoffs, which could otherwise be a real challenge given the extended layoff of at least four months.
ESPN story with @ramonashelburne on the NBA's Board of Governors planning to approve Adam Silver's eventual recommendation on a return-to-play plan in a vote on Thursday — and growing support among ownership for 22 teams resuming season in Orlando. https://t.co/fsi5LArjJx
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) May 29, 2020
However, bringing back all 30 teams doesn’t appear realistic. Challenges include both the logistics of containing all the additional personnel inside the Orlando “bubble,” as well as the difficulty of incentivizing players and teams without a realistic path to the 16-team playoff to play in only a small handful of games after a multi-month layoff.
The 22-team plan invites teams within six games of the final playoff spot in each conference, including New Orleans, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Washington. After a designated number of regular-season games, potentially as many as eight, there would be a play-in tournament for the last playoff seed in each conference.
Eight games would get all teams above the 70-game threshold on the season, which is a critical number for local television contracts.
Sources: If the NBA resumes play with a 22-team regular season format, teams will likely play eight games each. Then, a play-in tournament would take place for the eighth seed in each conference. Plans aren’t finalized yet but as of now it appears conferences would stay in place.
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) May 29, 2020
The biggest takeaway for the Rockets (40-24) is that their seed for the 2020 NBA playoffs isn’t yet set in stone. As the standings are today, Houston would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Oklahoma City Thunder, with whom they’re currently tied for the West’s No. 5 record.
But with additional regular-season games, there’s ample time for that to change. The Rockets only trail the Utah Jazz (41-23) by a single game for the No. 4 spot, and they hold the tiebreaker. They’re also only two back in the loss column of the No. 3 Denver Nuggets (43-22).
[lawrence-related id=25386]
There’s more room for the Rockets to move up than down, since No. 7 Dallas (40-27) has three additional losses. To this point, Houston and Dallas have split their two head-to-head meetings in the 2019-20 season. But with a three-game edge in the loss column and only a small handful of games left, it would be a tall order for the Mavs to catch the Rockets.
In other words, the Rockets probably have more to gain than lose, relative to their current No. 6 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Then again, it’s worth noting that the biggest usual advantage to a higher seed — home-court advantage in at least one round — isn’t applicable to the 2020 playoffs, which will be held without fans at the neutral Disney complex in Orlando. However, there are still two valuable considerations for the Rockets, should there be regular-season games.
One is their first-round matchup. For example, they’ve defeated Utah in two of three games this season (it would’ve been all three if not for a Bojan Bogdanovic buzzer-beater), and now Bogdanovic is lost for the season with a wrist injury. If the Rockets were to see that or any other opponent as a favorable matchup, they might could play their way into it.
The other consideration is which Los Angeles team that Houston would prefer to have on their side of the West bracket and potentially face in the second round, should they win their initial series.
On paper, the No. 1 Lakers (49-14) have been superior to the No. 2 Clippers (44-20) this season. But while the sample is small, it’s worth noting that the small-ball Rockets had more success against the former.
On Feb. 6, the Rockets beat LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the rest of the Lakers by double digits at Staples Center in a game where Russell Westbrook scored 41 points. Then, about one month later on March 5, the Rockets were crushed by Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in Houston.
The sample is clearly limited. But based on what we know now, the Rockets had an easier time matching up with the larger Lakers and their traditional big men than they did the long and versatile Clippers.
[lawrence-related id=29229,24247]
Then again, the Lakers would be heavy favorites against whatever team emerges as the No. 8 seed in the first round, whereas the Clippers could have a real test against superstar Luka Doncic and the No. 7 Mavericks. Perhaps the potential of an early upset could influence their thinking.
Without the prospect of home-court advantage, there’s no obvious path that’s certain to be preferable. But if the NBA salvages something of the 2019-20 regular season, it brings significantly more uncertainty into the mix regarding the eventual playoff matchups for the Rockets.
[lawrence-related id=31621,31548]