The Miami Dolphins’ playoff forecast is pretty simple: they guarantee themselves a seat at the table in this year’s playoff with a win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 17. The Bills, who are fresh off a primetime dismantling of the New England Patriots, will have to decide how much of their starters they want to see playing in Week 17 for what is effectively a game that might impact the seeding of the AFC.
The Bills, if they’re committed to becoming the No. 2 seed, will try to win. And if the Bills do win, thanks to some of the Week 16 action, Miami still has pathways to make the postseason. But what outcomes result in the Dolphins in what seeding? The AFC has three teams with 11+ wins and then each of the following teams at 10-4:
- Miami Dolphins
- Tennessee Titans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cleveland Browns
One of the Colts and Titans will get the call as the AFC South champion, which narrows the field a bit — but not enough. There’s going to be pure chaos in Week 17 as the playoffs look to shake out. But here’s what you need to know: NFL Research provided every possible combination of events for the AFC Playoff race — and here’s how things can shake out for the Dolphins, including what seed they’ll take on if they make the playoffs
In case you need your mind blown this morning, here's every possible permutation of the remaining AFC playoff spots based on Week 17 results, via @NFLResearch. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Fh3hok0O2M
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 28, 2020
Miami, with a win, is guaranteed the No. 5 seed in the standings. Even with a loss, there are outcomes that could feature the Dolphins playing the No. 4 seed, which will be the AFC South winner (either Indianapolis or Tennessee). The least appealing matchup for the Dolphins would be a return trip to Buffalo for the second consecutive week, and thankfully there’s really only a handful of outcomes in which Miami is the No. 7 seed — with Buffalo in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed, Miami’s best way to set the table for postseason success is the same as it has always been.
Win in Buffalo this Sunday.