The Green Bay Packers are headed to Detroit on Sunday to play a Lions team that has lost eight straight games. With a win, the Packers can clinch a first-round bye and open up the possibility of securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Matt Patricia’s Lions are limping to the finish line. After losing five straight games by one score, the Lions have been outscored by 42 points over the last three games – all losses by two scores or more.
Matt LaFleur and the Packers are coming off an emotional win and have had a challenging week logistically. There will be mental and physical challenges facing the visitors, but this is a game the Packers should win comfortably if they avoid self-inflicted errors.
The Lions are starting a third-string rookie quarterback, lack a consistent running game, are missing weapons in the passing game and have a non-existent pass-rush.
The Packers know what’s at stake. There’s a chance to have a week off and host a game in the divisional round by beating a team that hasn’t won since October and is heading for a top-five draft pick slotting.
No team in the NFL can be overlooked, and the Packers shouldn’t look past a road game inside the division. But LaFleur’s team, now 12-3 and division champions, are double-digit favorites for a reason.
Onto the film notes:
- Lions quarterback David Blough is a fearless young player who can make throws with accuracy when provided a clean platform, but his feel in the pocket needs a lot of work. Things get really messy for him once he starts to feel pressure. The Packers can expect him to run himself into a few sacks, especially if they get him uncomfortable early.
- The Packers won’t underestimate Kenny Golladay. A dynamic receiver, he’s burned the Packers defense too many times in recent years. He has 1,100 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on only 62 catches this season. The Lions like getting him opportunities to use his size and athleticism to win downfield in the vertical passing game. With Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson both on IR, veteran slot Danny Amendola is probably Blough’s top secondary target.
- The Lions are still physical up front on defense. They held their own early in Denver against the run, but the Broncos stuck with it, wore out the front and eventually ripped off a few big gains late in the game. The Packers did the same to the Vikings on Monday night.
- Running back Bo Scarborough is a tough, upright runner. He’ll get what’s blocked and not much more. He lacks a dynamic quality. Expect him to share the load with Kerryon Johnson, the original starter who returned last week after spending eight weeks on IR.
- The Lions have allowed 31 touchdown passes in 2019. They have effective man-to-man corners, but the Broncos found a lot of success throwing to the middle of the field. Using the play-action passing game to clear inexperienced linebackers from passing lanes really worked for the Broncos.
- Returner Jamal Agnew is a shifty player with good vision and acceleration. His punt return for a touchdown in Denver was a terrific individual effort. The Lions may need a big play or two on special teams to spring the upset.
- The Lions’ pass-rush is anchored by Trey Flowers and Devon Kennard, who have combined for 14 sacks and 34 quarterback hits in 2019 – or roughly the same production as the Packers have received from Za’Darius Smith this season. They’re a physical duo, but the Lions remain one of the worst pass-rushing teams in football. Aaron Rodgers will have time on Sunday. Flowers and nose tackle Damon Harrison are Detriot’s best players up front.
- This could be the week to feed Aaron Jones and the running backs in the passing game. The Lions are really hurting at linebacker, and they’ve struggled to cover running backs all season. Getting Jones in space on turf could create explosive gains.