The Cowboys finally displayed the full power of an offense that the advanced stats have been saying exists all season. It was a truly dominating win, and the first one against a team over .500 all season. We knew this team was capable of trouncing the Dolphins and the Giants, but now they’ve proved that they really could be better than their record suggests.
In this week’s EPA power rankings, the Cowboys climb right back into the top five, a spot they lost only last week to the very same Rams team that just got doubled up by Dallas in Week 15.
Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.
A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.
The below rankings represent team EPA differential (offense EPA minus defense EPA) adjusted for opponent strength.
The 44-point outing from the Cowboys cemented their spot as the second-best offense in the NFL, trailing only Baltimore in that category. This was really the first week they put it all together since that great stretch over the first three weeks of the season. There’s arguments to be made that this offensive explosion was due to the two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, both of whom surpassed 100 rushing yards in the game. There are also arguments to be made that an incredibly efficient day from Dak Prescott (9.2 YPA, 2TD) was the biggest contributor. All that really matters is that both were on fire on Sunday against a really good Rams defense.
Here are the stats from only when the Cowboys built their 31-7 lead:
Passes: +9.0 total EPA (+0.48 per play), +34 percentage points of win probability added
Runs: +7.6 total EPA (+0.27 per play), +14 percentage points of win probability added
— Cowboys Stats & Graphics (@CowboysStats) December 16, 2019
Pollard and Elliott ranked first and fourth, respectively, in EPA/carry in Week 15. Prescott had the eight best EPA/dropback. This offense was humming and proving to be a worthy playoff contender regardless of their record.
Outside of this game, there wasn’t a ton of movement within our ranks this week. The Falcons made the biggest leap, going up five spots after taking down the vaunted San Francisco 49ers as time expired.
The most interesting team on here this week might be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs won’t make the playoffs, and yet they sit just outside the top ten in adjusted EPA differential, right above the teams in contention for the AFC South.
The fact that Tampa has maintained a slightly above average passing offense by EPA/play is frankly astounding considering the fact that Jameis Winston leads the league with 24 interceptions and five pick-sixes. Pair that with the best run defense this season and a top five pass defense since Week 10 (I know, I was shocked too) and you’ve got a recipe for a team on the verge of a turnaround. Bruce Arians has still got it.
Here’s a visual of team passing defense since Week 10, where you can see Tampa Bay ever so slightly edging out the New England Patriots in passing EPA.
Philadelphia didn’t move up or down at all this week, but they did lose their title of Most Average 2019 NFL Team (closest to 0 EPA differential) to the Indianapolis Colts. While watching the Colts get stomped by the Saints on Monday Night Football, I couldn’t help but wonder where this average team would be with Andrew Luck at the helm. We’ve been robbed of an epic Andrew Luck vs. Ryan Tannehill clash of the titans (no pun intended) for the AFC South this year and it’s a real shame.
Dallas gets a chance to prove their success against the Rams was a turning point of the season this Sunday when they can finally clinch a division title, a home playoff game, and a chance at a fourth straight season with at least nine wins. This will be their chance to become the Team That Nobody Wants To See In The Playoffs™ of 2019.
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