8. Houston Texans

(8-5. Last week: 6)

The Texans were coming off a 28-22 win over the Patriots in which they matched the four touchdowns allowed by New England’s defense all season and shut down New England’s offense (although that’s not difficult to do these days). So presumably, against the Broncos and rookie quarterback Drew Lock making his first road start, Romeo Crennel’s defense was set for another strong performance.

Perhaps not. The Broncos may have their franchise quarterback of the future, and the Texans have some serious questions about their defense after Lock completed 22 of 27 passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Lock became the first rookie in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes in his first career road start, and his 235 yards in the first half was the most for a Broncos quarterback since Peyton Manning was taking snaps. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson managed just 28 completions in 50 attempts for 292 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The Texans travel to Tennessee next week to meet the red-hot Titans. A loss bumps them out of the AFC South lead — and possibly out of playoff contention altogether if the performance against Denver was more than an anomaly.

7. Buffalo Bills

(9-4. Last week: 7)

When the Eagles shut down Michael Vick in the 2004 NFC Championship game, defensive coordinator Jim Johnson did it with a mush-rush as opposing to crashing his ends down on the hypermobile quarterback, and asking his linebackers and safeties to spy gaps in the defense as opposed to spying Vick himself. Current Bills head coach Sean McDermott was Johnson’s assistant secondary coach at the time, and there were elements of the Vick plan in Buffalo’s attempts to at least slow Lamar Jackson down on Sunday. It didn’t work on the scoreboard — the Ravens won their ninth game in a row with a 24-17 final — but Jackson was limited to a point. He did throw three touchdown passes, but managed just 145 passing yards on 16 completions in 25 attempts, and had just 40 rushing yards on 11 attempts. McDermott’s team doesn’t have much time to brood over this missed opportunity. They have the Steelers and Patriots on the docket next — and that’s bad news for quarterback Josh Allen, who looked anything but consistent against Baltimore’s defense.

6. Green Bay Packers

(10-3. Last week: 8)

Eventually, we may have to deal with the fact that at his peak, Aaron Rodgers was the most physically gifted passer in NFL history, and his physical peak was wasted at the hands of ham-fisted former head coach and offensive play-caller Mike McCarthy. Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in three of his past five games, and the Packers seem to be led more by their defense and run game at this point. It was enough to beat the Redskins and their sorry defense on Sunday, but Matt LaFleur’s team has the Bears and Vikings up next — so if the Pack wants to win the NFC North, it might be time for Rodgers to light it up. He hasn’t had a big day since he amassed 429 yards and five touchdowns against Oakland’s highly suspect pass defense in Week 7.

5. New England Patriots

(10-3. Last week: 5)

Kansas City’s 23-16 win over the Patriots on Sunday started oddly for the Chiefs and ended in highly frustrating fashion for the Patriots. An equipment container belonging to Andy Reid’s team that contained helmets, shoulder pads and footballs wasn’t unloaded at Gillette Stadium and was subsequently sent to New Jersey. Had there not been efforts to get the gear back to Foxborough in time for the game, the Chiefs would have had to forfeit a game for the first time in the league’s history.

Reid and Bill Belichick probably wished that Jerome Boger and his officiating crew skipped the game altogether. Boger’s crew robbed receiver N’Keal Harry of a touchdown, got the yardage wrong on an illegal use of hands call on Chiefs guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, gave a quick whistle on a turnover that could have been a defensive touchdown for the Patriots, missed an obvious defensive pass interference call on Kansas City cornerback Kendall Fuller when he was covering receiver Phillip Dorsett late in the fourth quarter, called Chiefs right tackle Mitchell Schwartz for holding on a play that was borderline at best, and gave Kansas City center Austin Reiter an illegal blindside block penalty that appeared equally suspect.

Apparently, this is not pass interference. pic.twitter.com/JWzEsTYy07

— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 9, 2019

The Patriots got the worst of Boger’s crew, but the real problem Belichick must face is that his offense has fallen apart and has no identity. Tom Brady hasn’t had a passer rating over 100 since Week 5, the Patriots couldn’t get a consistent ground game going, and opposing offenses are starting to find subtle vulnerabilities in a pass defense that once looked historically great. Yes, the Pats are still 10-3, but after two losses in a row, and three in their past five games, they look more and more like a one-and-done in the playoffs.

4. Seattle Seahawks

(10-3. Last week: 2)

With the 49ers outlasting the Saints earlier in the day, all the Seahawks had to do was to beat the Rams on Sunday night to seize the top spot in the NFC playoff race. Seattle had beaten the Vikings six days earlier in a game where the Seahawks offense beat the daylights out of Minnesota on the ground and through the air. In addition, Seattle’s defense had been one of the NFL’s best in the second half of the season.

With that much buildup, you probably know what happened next. The Seahawks went to Los Angeles and got housed by the Rams in every way possible in a 28-12 loss. Jared Goff was barely pressured and completed 22 of 31 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns — though he did also throw two interceptions to safety Quandre Diggs, who was by far the most effective member of Seattle’s defense on the evening.

More disconcerting was the performance of Russell Wilson and his offensive line. Wilson was sacked five times, hit 11 more times, averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt, and was held without a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 13 of last season. The Seahawks will face the Panthers and Cardinals before a Week 17 battle with the 49ers that could decide all kinds of things in the NFC.

3. New Orleans Saints

(10-3. Last week: 3)

Sunday’s game between the 49ers and Saints marked just the third time since 1950 that both quarterbacks in a game had the same number of passing yards. It just so happened that Jimmy Garoppolo’s yardage on San Francisco’s final drive meant a bit more than Drew Brees’ did. With less than a minute left, Brees hit receiver Tre’Quan Smith on an 18-yard touchdown pass — his fifth touchdown pass of the game — and the Saints looked to have a 46-45 win, as long as New Orleans’ defense could hold Garoppolo to his own side of the field.

That didn’t happen, as Garoppolo hit tight end George Kittle on a 39-yard play on fourth-and-2 from the San Francisco 33-yard line. Add in safety Marcus Williams’ 15-yard facemask penalty, and that’s all it took to position Robbie Gould for the winning 30-yard field goal.

The Saints went from the first seed in the NFC to the third with the loss, and they have tough games against the Colts, Titans and Panthers to end the season. Job No. 1 for New Orleans’ coaching staff will be to tinker with a pass defense that fell apart multiple times in this game.

2. San Francisco 49ers

(11-2. Last week: 4)

With 53 seconds left in Sunday’s 49ers-Saints shootout, Drew Brees completed an 18-yard touchdown pass to receiver Tre’Quan Smith that put New Orleans up, 46-45. The Saints missed the two-point conversion, meaning that San Francisco could win with a field goal. The 49ers started their final drive of the game from their own 25-yard line, and they were in a real pickle when they lined up with fourth-and-2 from their own 33 with 39 seconds left.

Then, tight end George Kittle went all superhuman.

Can't catch him when he goes right bayou 😤@gkittle46 | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/TDnEHk4TUX

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 8, 2019

Kittle’s 39-yard play — and a 15-yard facemask penalty on Saints safety Marcus Williams — put kicker Robbie Gould in position to kick a 30-yard field goal as time expired. With the 48-46 win, the 49ers vaulted from the fifth seed to the first in the NFC and made it clear that anyone who wants to take that seed from them will have to earn it. Though Robert Saleh’s defense showed some disturbing vulnerabilities against Brees and his receivers, Jimmy Garoppolo made up for it with a bravura performance in which he completed 26 of 35 passes for 349 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. More than any other win the 49ers have earned this season, this one showed them as a team capable of beating anybody. After losing to the Ravens the week before, it was an important statement to make.

1. Baltimore Ravens

(11-2. Last week: 1)

The Ravens have won nine consecutive games. In their past two wins, over the 49ers and Bills (combined current record: 20-6), they have learned to win ugly, the exact skill a team needs to have in its quiver come championship time. It wasn’t generally easy for Lamar Jackson against Buffalo’s defense, but the MVP favorite still got it done with three touchdown passes in a 24-17 win. More encouraging for the AFC’s top seed is the performance of a defense that has been tough throughout the second half of the season — and specifically, since the trade for cornerback Marcus Peters in mid-October. That defense limited Bills quarterback Josh Allen to 17 completions in 39 attempts (Allen helped with several helium balls over the heads of his receivers), and the Ravens clinched a playoff berth with the victory. Baltimore will play the Jets, Browns and Steelers to finish the season and has retained its status as the team nobody wants to face right now.

32-25 | 24-17 | 16-9 | 8-1

Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”