16. Dallas Cowboys
(6-7. Last week: 15)
With all the talk about Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Jason Garrett and Jerry Jones during the Cowboys’ recent implosion, Dallas’ defense largely has avoided blame. But Rod Marinelli’s group has been a real liability of late. Since Week 10, the Cowboys have dropped from 18th to 24th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted defensive metrics, ranking 26th against the pass and 20th against the run. They’ve picked up just two turnovers in that span, both against the Bears last Thursday in a 31-24 loss, and they’re 1-4 in that time period. They’ve allowed Mitchell Trubisky, Josh Allen, Jeff Driskel and Kirk Cousins to throw against their defense with virtually no obstruction. Only the Saints and Dolphins have allowed more touchdown passes since Week 10 than Dallas’ 10, and only the Panthers have allowed more yards after contact in the run game than Dallas’ 452. Once Jerry Jones is done swearing enough to get cut off during radio appearances, he might want to look into that.
15. Oakland Raiders
(6-7. Last week: 14)
Following a Week 11 win over the Bengals, the Raiders were 6-4, and looked like a contender for the AFC West crown. Then everything went dark for the Silver and Black, as they endured a two-game streak in which they failed to score a touchdown. Oakland managed three touchdowns on Sunday against the Titans, but it wasn’t nearly enough — and this time, the problem was Paul Guenther’s defense. Ryan Tannehill threw for 391 yards and three touchdowns, and Derrick Henry ran for 103 yards and two scores of his own, and Oakland ceded the division to the Chiefs with a 42-21 loss. Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Josh Jacobs missed the game with a shoulder injury, and rookie tight end Foster Moreau will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Oakland had thrived on its impressive rookie class to date, and with that group starting to fall apart, Jon Gruden may be presiding over a lost season.
14. Chicago Bears
(7-6. Last week: 17)
It’s probably too late to make a difference for the Bears in the 2019 postseason derby, but Mitchell Trubisky has caught fire (comparatively) in recent weeks. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Trubisky had just five passing touchdowns to three interceptions with a 81.4 passer rating, and he looked lost more often than not. But since Week 9 — and this includes his three-touchdown performance against an all-too-willing Cowboys defense last Thursday — he’s thrown 11 touchdown passes to just five picks with a 92.4 passer rating. Against Dallas, Trubisky also ran 10 times for 63 yards and a touchdown, and using Trubisky as a runner is something Bears coach Matt Nagy hasn’t done enough this season. Trubisky is still a fundamentally limited quarterback, and he probably always will be. But it will be interesting to see if the Bears continue to use him as a runner and boot-action thrower, because that’s where he’s been consistent all season, albeit with a small sample size.
13. Los Angeles Rams
(8-5. Last week: 13)
Over the past couple weeks, Rams head coach Sean McVay has made a couple effective adjustments to his offense. The Rams are running more inside zone, and they’ve increased the tempo from snap to snap. That second adjustment really tore the Seahawks’ defense apart on Sunday night, as McVay’s team beat their NFC West foe, 28-12, in a game that preserved possible postseason relevance for a squad that looked out of it a few weeks back — especially after a 45-6 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens in Week 12. In this game, the Rams had 15 first downs by halftime, and Seattle head coach Pete Carroll admitted after the fact that his defense had trouble calling plays and getting set at McVay’s breakneck tempo. The Rams have the Cowboys’ sieve-like defense up next, and then a real test when they head to San Francisco in Week 16. But for now, it appears that McVay has figured out a few things about his offense that will work beyond his base formations and concepts for the first time since late last season. There’s no better time than now for that to happen.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
(8-5. Last week: 12)
With Pittsburgh’s 23-17 win over the Cardinals on Sunday, head coach Mike Tomlin guaranteed his 13th consecutive non-losing season — he’s never had any other kind. This season may well be Tomlin’s most impressive coaching performance, as he’s lifted his team into the playoff race with one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. How have Tomlin and his team done it? Defense. The Steelers intercepted Arizona rookie quarterback Kyler Murray three times in the win, and that put them behind only the Patriots in interceptions this season with 18. Pittsburgh leads the league with 48 sacks, and only the Saints and Cowboys have more pressures than Pittsburgh’s 164. Quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges became the first undrafted rookie to win his first three starts since a replacement player named Ed Rubbert did it during the 1987 strike. If Hodges can find some consistency with a depleted receiving corps, that’s all he has to do — because this defense is one of the NFL’s best.
11. Tennessee Titans
(8-5. Last week: 11)
Since head coach Mike Vrabel made the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, the Titans have moved in record from 2-4 to 8-5. Only Lamar Jackson has a higher passer rating in the second half of the season than Tannehill’s 118.3, and few quarterbacks have been better with play-action in that time — Tannehill has completed 25 of 30 play-action attempts for 440 yards, four touchdowns and one interception since Week 9. The Titans are now discussing making Tannehill their long-term starting quarterback, and it’s difficult to argue against it. Sunday’s 42-21 demolition of the Raiders, in which Tannehill completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, put the Titans on point with the Texans atop the AFC South with matching 8-5 records, and next Sunday marks the first of two games featuring Tennessee and Houston in the season’s last three weeks.
10. Minnesota Vikings
(9-4. Last week: 10)
The Vikings have major problems in their secondary — which is uncharacteristic for a Mike Zimmer defense — but the cure for what has ailed that secondary was a trip to Dr. David Blough and his Detroit Lions. The cornerback group of Xavier Rhodes, Mike Hughes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander — a quartet that has allowed 13 touchdowns while recording just just two interceptions this season — didn’t pick off Blough, but safeties Harrison Smith and Andrew Sendejo each came away with an interception, and Kirk Cousins was efficient enough (24-of-30, 233 yards, one touchdown) to dispose of Detroit’s underachieving defense. At 9-4, Minnesota is one game behind the Packers in the NFC North race, and those two teams will face off on Dec. 23. If nothing else, the Vikings are keeping a fire lit under Green Bay’s collective rear end.
9. Kansas City Chiefs
(9-4. Last week: 9)
The Chiefs have allowed 17, 9 and 16 points in their wins over the Chargers, Raiders and Patriots over the past three games. They’ve also picked up eight turnovers in those games, after just 12 in their first 10 games. It’s a good time for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to catch fire, because Patrick Mahomes’ arm hasn’t. Mahomes completed 26 of 40 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown and one interception against New England’s defense in a 23-16 win on Sunday, but that was the same defense that allowed four passing touchdowns to Deshaun Watson and the Texans the week before. In those last three wins, Mahomes has completed just 59.4% of his passes for 640 yards, 6.3 yards per attempt, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Chiefs clinched the AFC West title for the fourth consecutive season, but they’ll need more from their MVP at some point if they want to go as deep into the postseason as they did last season — or further.