The PGA Tour’s Waste Management Phoenix Open will bring us right up to kickoff of Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs Sunday evening at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. First, Rickie Fowler returns to TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona, to battle another loaded field led by world No. 3 Jon Rahm.
The key stats for the Waste Management Phoenix Open are:
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drives Gained
- Strokes Gained: Scrambling
My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 24 rounds on courses featuring Bermuda Greens.
Waste Management Phoenix Open – Tier 1
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9 p.m. ET.
Jon Rahm (+600)
Rahm is the betting favorite at BetMGM, and for good reason. Not only is he the top-ranked golfer from the Official World Golf Ranking, but he’s coming off a runner-up finish to Marc Leishman at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. He hasn’t finished worse than 10th in his last five worldwide events.
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Xander Schauffele (+1800)
Schauffele was one of the biggest disappointments of the week at Torrey Pines, as he missed the cut for the first time since the Northern Trust in August. He returns to TPC Scottsdale having tied for 10th last year (with Rahm). He also tied for 17th in 2018. Schauffele ranks ninth in the stat model, ranking in the top 10 of four-of-the-five key stats.
Waste Management Phoenix Open – Tier 2
Byeong Hun An (+6600)
An is the leader of the stat model; the 49th-ranked golfer in the world ranks fourth in the field among those with at least five rounds played at TPC Scottsdale in total strokes gained per round, according to Data Golf. He’s still seeking a PGA Tour win, but he hasn’t finished worse than T-23 in three appearances at this event.
Ryan Moore (+6600)
Moore missed the cut at this event the last two years. He enters this year’s tournament ranked eighth by the stat model, and he’s coming off a T-6 at the American Express. His ball-striking and play off the tee are well suited to this venue.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open – Longshots
Rory Sabbatini (+10000)
Sabbatini slipped to 88th by the OWGR with last week’s missed cut at the Farmers. It snapped a streak of seven straight made cuts dating to the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He’s second-best in the field in Bogey Avoidance, and he’ll be able to capitalize on the many scoring chances at TPC Scottsdale.
Adam Hadwin (+11000)
Hadwin has made the cut here each of the last four years with a top finish of T-12 in 2017. The Canadian hasn’t played since finishing in a tie for 68th at the RSM Classic while attending to the birth of his first child. He has slipped to 52nd in the world in his time off and now has fresh motivation at a familiar venue.
Complete odds
| Player | Odds |
| Jon Rahm | +600 |
| Justin Thomas | +800 |
| Webb Simpson | +1400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1600 |
| Rickie Fowler | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2500 |
| Matt Kuchar | +2500 |
| Gary Woodland | +2800 |
| Tony Finau | +2800 |
| Sungjae Im | +3000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +3300 |
| Bubba Watson | +3300 |
| Collin Morikawa | +3300 |
| Branden Grace | +4500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +4500 |
| Cameron Smith | +5000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +5000 |
| Ryan Palmer | +5000 |
| Chez Reavie | +6000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +6600 |
| Daniel Berger | +6600 |
| Jason Kokrak | +6600 |
| Kevin Na | +6600 |
| Matthew Wolff | +6600 |
| Russell Knox | +6600 |
| Ryan Moore | +6600 |
| Corey Conners | +7000 |
| Brian Harman | +8000 |
| J.B. Holmes | +8000 |
| J.T. Poston | +8000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +8000 |
| Vaughn Taylor | +8000 |
| Andrew Landry | +9000 |
| Andrew Putnam | +9000 |
| Billy Horschel | +9000 |
| Brendan Steele | +9000 |
| Bud Cauley | +9000 |
| Ted Hoge | +9000 |
| Charley Hoffman | +10000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +10000 |
| Harry Higgs | +10000 |
| Lanto Griffin | +10000 |
| Rory Sabbatini | +10000 |
| Sung Kang | +10000 |
| Zach Johnson | +10000 |
| Adam Hadwin | +11000 |
| Beau Hossler | +11000 |
| Max Homa | +11000 |
| Harold Varner III | +12500 |
| Harris English | +12500 |
| Joel Dahmen | +12500 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | +12500 |
| Martin Laird | +12500 |
| Russell Henley | +12500 |
| Sebastián Muñoz | +12500 |
| Aaron Wise | +15000 |
| Carlos Ortiz | +15000 |
| Charl Schwartzel | +15000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | +15000 |
| Nick Taylor | +15000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +15000 |
| Scott Piercy | +15000 |
| Sepp Straka | +15000 |
| Talor Gooch | +15000 |
| Chesson Hadley | +17500 |
| Jimmy Walker | +17500 |
| Luke List | +17500 |
| Nate Lashley | +17500 |
| Sebastian Cappelen | +17500 |
| Adam Long | +20000 |
| Adam Schenk | +20000 |
| Brian Gay | +20000 |
| Brian Stuard | +20000 |
| Cameron Tringale | +20000 |
| Danny Lee | +20000 |
| Grayson Murray | +20000 |
| Kevin Chappell | +20000 |
| Kevin Streelman | +20000 |
| Kevin Tway | +20000 |
| Kyle Stanley | +20000 |
| Matt Jones | +20000 |
| Sam Burns | +20000 |
| Sam Ryder | +20000 |
| Sean O’Hair | +20000 |
| Tyler Duncan | +20000 |
| Chris Kirk | +22500 |
| Aaron Baddeley | +25000 |
| Austin Cook | +25000 |
| Brice Garnett | +25000 |
| Chris Stroud | +25000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +25000 |
| John Huh | +25000 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | +25000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +25000 |
| Ryan Armour | +25000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +25000 |
| Troy Merritt | +25000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +25000 |
| C.T. Pan | +30000 |
| James Hahn | +30000 |
| Jamie Lovemark | +30000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +30000 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | +30000 |
| Luke Donald | +30000 |
| Matt Every | +30000 |
| Patton Kizzire | +30000 |
| Peter Malnati | +30000 |
| Steve Stricker | +30000 |
| Tom Potter, Jr. | +30000 |
| Trey Mullinax | +30000 |
| Greg Chalmers | +35000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +35000 |
| Scott Harrington | +35000 |
| Brandon Hagy | +40000 |
| Hudson Swafford | +40000 |
| K.J. Choi | +50000 |
| Kevin Stadler | +50000 |
| Kyle Westmoreland | +50000 |
| Roger Sloan | +50000 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | +50000 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +50000 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | +50000 |
| Bo Van Pelt | +75000 |
| Colt Knost | +75000 |
| Marty Jertson | +75000 |
| Martin Trainer | +100000 |
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