The Washington Wizards (14-9) tangle with the Toronto Raptors (10-13) Sunday at Scotiabank Arena with the tip-off set for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Raptors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Washington is 3-3 overall in the last six games (2-4 ATS) with the latest being a 116-101 blowout loss at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday. The Wizards are 12-11 ATS and 10-13 O/U with the 18th-best net rating.
Toronto snapped its three-game losing streak Thursday with a 97-93 home victory over a Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 9-14 ATS and 12-11 O/U with the 19th-best net rating.
These teams have split the first two meetings of the season with the road team winning and covering both. Also, the Under cashed in the each.
Wizards at Raptors odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Wizards -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Raptors -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +1.5 (-120) | Raptors -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Wizards at Raptors key injuries
Wizards
- C Thomas Bryant (knee) out
- PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out
Raptors
- SF OG Anunoby (hip) out
- PG Goran Dragic (personal) out
Wizards at Raptors odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Raptors 107, Wizards 102
Money line
I cannot put my finger on exactly how but the Wizards are due for regression. It’s already kind of happening: Washington is 3-4 overall with the 25th-best efficiency differential and a minus-9.2 ATS margin over the past two weeks (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).
Furthermore, the Wizards have the second-highest win differential at 2.6 (CleaningTheGlass.com) and a minus-0.2 net rating despite a 14-9 overall record. Essentially, Washington has nearly three more wins than it should.
Also, I think the Raptors are due for progression up to the mean at home. For instance, the Raptors are 3-8 overall in Toronto with the 25th-best efficiency differential and the 26th-ranked ATS margin. The Raptors played a weird 2020-21 season with their home games being in Tampa Bay due to COVID.
Perhaps it’s taking time for the Raptors to get readjusted to playing in Jurassic Park?
Finally, it feels like the oddsmakers are laying a trap with the Wizards (-108) and a lot of people are falling for it. The Raptors opened as a -123 consensus favorite (according to Pregame.com) and all the pro-Washington money has made Toronto cheaper.
However, as we’ve already discussed, the Wizards aren’t as good as their record indicates and the RAPTORS (-112) will start to figure it out in Toronto. Plus we’re getting additional value by Toronto being the less popular side.
BET 1 unit on the RAPTORS (-112).
Against the spread
PASS since Toronto’s money line is only seven cents on the dollar more expensive than the Raptors -1.5 (-105).
For what it’s worth, according to Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the money at the time of publishing is on the Wizards +1.5 (-120).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 211.5 (-107) for a small wager, if at all, because I prefer Toronto’s money line. But, a vast majority of the market is hammering the Over for reasons I’m unclear on.
I see value in the UNDER 211.5 (-107) because both teams play at a bottom-seven pace, the Under has cashed in both Wizards-Raptors meetings earlier this season, neither is a good 3-point shooting team and the officiating crew assigned to this game has a combined 13-22 O/U record on the year.
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