The Washington Wizards (15-12) travel to the Mile High City Monday to play the Denver Nuggets (13-13) at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Washington is 2-5 straight-up (SU), 1-5-1 ATS and 5-1-1 O/U with the 26th-ranked non-garbage time net rating over the past two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Wizards were trounced 123-98 Saturday at home by the Utah Jazz in their last outing.
In the last 14 days, Denver is 4-3 SU/ATS and 6-1 O/U with the 16th-ranked non-garbage time-efficiency differential. The Nuggets split a back-to-back with the San Antonio Spurs Thursday and Saturday, winning the second meeting 127-112.
The Wizards have beat and covered against the Nuggets in four of their last five meetings, including three straight win/covers.
Wizards at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:01 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Wizards +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Nuggets -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +3.5 (-107) | Nuggets -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Wizards at Nuggets key injuries
Wizards
- PF Kyle Kuzma (health and safety protocols) out
Nuggets
- SG Will Barton (illness) questionable
- PF Aaron Gordon (back) questionable
- PF JaMychal Green (ankle) doubtful
Wizards at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 109, Wizards 101
Money line
PASS since I’m on Denver to win and cover, but I’m not confident enough to lay it with the Nuggets (-170) especially if Barton misses the game. Barton is the only Nuggets player aside from C Nikola Jokic who can create his own look.
Against the spread
“LEAN” NUGGETS -3.5 (-115) because the Wizards have the second-worst road cover rate at 4-10-1 ATS with a minus-2.8 spread differential.
Washington has begun to fall back down to earth recently and it isn’t as good as its record indicates.
Also, Washington has the second-highest win differential at plus-2.9 wins, which basically means the Wizards have three more wins than their efficiency differential suggests.
The Nuggets play better at home and are probably eager to get back in front of their home crowd following a seven-game road trip. Denver is 7-4 SU at home with a plus-2.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and the 10th-best ATS margin, per CTG.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 216.5 (-110), which is my favorite wager in this game because there’s a “line freeze” in the betting market and the officiating crew assigned to this game has a combined 8-22 O/U record.
According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over, yet the total hasn’t budged off the opener.
Typically, sportsbooks will adjust the lines according to their liability. But since the House seemingly wants more pro-Over money, I say we go the other way and BET UNDER 216.5 (-110).
Also, both of these teams play at a bottom-six pace and fewer possessions mean fewer points, generally.
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