Washington State vs. SDSU: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Keys, Prediction

The Aztecs have a lot to gain with a hometown upset over future PAC-12 conference mates- the Washington State Cougars.

Contact/Follow @tedmcgovern & @MWCwire

The last time SDSU opened a football season with a 1-3 record in 2015, they went on to win the next ten games.

WEEK 8: WSU Cougars (6-1, 0-0 PAC) vs. SDSU Aztecs (3-3, 2-0 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, October 26th, 2024— 7:30 PM PST / 10:30 PM EST

WHERE: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California (35,000)

TV: CBSSN

STREAMING: CBS Sports Network Stream

RADIO: San Diego Sports 760

SERIES RECORD: Aztecs are 1-1 all time against the Cougars.

LAST MATCHUP: Sept. 17, 2011. SDSU won 42-24 at home.

WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website; WSUCougars.com the official Washington State athletics website.

ODDS: Washington State -14

OVER/UNDER: 56.5

San Diego, CA- On Saturday evening, October 26th, coach Jake Dickert and the Washington State Cougars (6-1) visit Snapdragon Stadium in Mission Valley to take on coach Sean Lewis and the well-rested SDSU Aztecs (3-3). The Aztecs, coming off a second bye week are projected to lose by two touchdowns, however Coach Dickert knows that SDSU is a wild card with a projected 19% opportunity to wage victory.

The new-look Aztecs opened their season with a disappointing 1-3 record before winning back-to-back conference games against Hawai’i and Wyoming. The last time SDSU opened a football season with a 1-3 record in 2015, they went on to win the next ten games. The wins included a 27-24 victory over Air Force in the Mountain West Championship game followed by a 42-7 win over Cincinnati in the Hawai’i Bowl.

For this meeting, SDSU and the Cougars face one another for the first time in thirteen years, since the Aztecs won 42-24 at Qualcomm Stadium on Sept. 17, 2011. WSU won their first ever meeting on Sept. 8, 2007, 45-17 at Qwest Field in Seattle. Going forward, play between these teams will be annualized, and in 2026 SDSU officially becomes PAC-12 conference mates with Wazzu.

The Aztecs are projected to finish eighth in the Mountain West in 2024, but in the moment they are undefeated in conference play. Quietly and consistently, coach Lewis’s Aztecs are spooling up. Saturday’s match could truly galvanize SDSU, if they manage to wage victory.

Let’s take a closer look at what it’s going to take for the Aztecs to win.

Keys to a San Diego State Victory

1. Defensive picKs

The Cougars haven’t activated their running game the way Coach Dickert expected. Against Hawaii last week, talented true freshman tailback Wayshawn Parker had just 25 yards on nine plays after having at least one rush of 20+ yards in every other game this season.

The run game is a work in progress, so the Cougars rely heavily on quarterback John Mateer who has thrown six interceptions this season.

For an aggressive defense like the Aztecs with a formidable secondary, this means 1-2 interceptions are more than possible. If any are converted to pick-sixes, these defensive touchdowns would strip away the big advantage Wazzu is expected to have. Currently, the Aztecs are 6-0 when defense scores a touchdown. If this happens- Wazzu should worry.

2. take mateer down

Mateer has solid stats. He has thrown for 1,896 yards with 16 touchdowns and, again, six interceptions. He’s been sacked 20 times, suggesting he holds out for the right play- even when it doesn’t materialize.

Heavy Aztec pressure on Mateer will keep him off balance, provoking rushed plays leading to lost yards at critical moments and off-center passes that could be more effectively intercepted. If the heat is on, and he is deterred from finding a rhythm, it will have a huge impact on this game.

Mateer’s vulnerability to sack attacks complements Aztec EDGE Trey White’s NCAA leading ability to take down signal callers.

White is having a killer season. With 11 sacks through six games, including 10.5 over the last four, he averages 1.83 sacks per game. If he can uphold this rate for the season, it would be a NCAA FBS record.

White has been added to the Bednarik Award Watch List for the most outstanding defensive player, and he was named to five midseason All-America teams. As a team, the Aztecs rank second in the country with 4.17 sacks per game. White’s 1.83 sacks per game are more than 47 other FBS teams, including Arizona, BYU, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Washington State, UCLA and USC, among others.

At the time of this writing, White leads the country in sacks per game (1.83), tackles for loss (15.0), tackles for loss per game (2.50) and tackles for loss yards (91), and is tied for first in total sacks (11.0), and tied for third in sack yards (60).

Keeping Mateer on his heels also means disrupting Wazzu’s lead rusher with 533 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. The Aztecs must keep in mind he is a major flight risk, when they collapse the pocket and come for him.

3. AIR ASSAULT

True Freshman Aztec quarterback Danny O’Neil is a work in progress who steadily improves with each game. He has proven to be a solid ball handler, producing only a single interception (off of a tipped ball) all season. In his last outing, O’Neil threw for a career-high 254 yards.

O’Neil has also shown he can drop a dime at critical moments, most recently connecting back-to-back on long passes with Jordan Napier in Laramie, creating desperately needed game-changing momentum from the sky, that led to the Aztecs edging out the Cowboys.

4. LIMIT THE PENALTIES

The Aztecs won’t defeat strong opponents if they don’t play with discipline.

What Will Happen

The Aztecs are expected to lose by two touchdowns. SDSU will be well-rested, and playing on their home field. If defense manages to pick the Cougars off, and if Mateer adds to his collection of sacks, this game may be closer than expected. A slowed down Wazzu offense coupled with a scoring SDSU defense could turn this into a one-possession game. If the Aztecs grab two interceptions with at least one pick-six, the Aztecs could escape this match with a win.

Most likely, the Cougars win by four in a closer-than-expected match.

Washington State 28, San Diego State 24