The Washington Nationals (12-21) and Philadelphia Phillies (16-15) play the third installment of a four-game series Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Nationals-Phillies MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Nationals at Phillies: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Scherzer has battled hamstring issues in posting a 3.86 ERA through seven starts.
- The perennial All-Star hurler is coming off one of his best starts of 2020, a six-inning, 11-strikeout performance at Fenway Park on Friday.
- Scherzer’s surface ERA has been bloodied by a .372 BABIP and higher-than-career-normal rate of fly balls leaving the yard.
Wheeler has ingratiated himself with his new club by clocking a fine 2.58 through 6 starts.
- Wheeler hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any one start this season. He has yielded just one home run in four starts in his hitter-friendly home park.
- Current Washington bats own a high-walk .756 OPS against the 10-year veteran. As a member of the New York Mets last year, Wheeler logged a five-start 6.83 ERA against the Nationals.
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Nationals at Phillies: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Nationals
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
- RP Javy Guerra (hamstring) questionable
Phillies
- RP Jose Alvarez (groin) out
- 2B Scott Kingery (back) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Nationals at Phillies: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML)
The Nats (-118) are struggling (1-7 since Aug. 24) but undervalued by their .364 win percentage. The Nationals’ offense has cranked out a league-best .903 OPS on the road. Mix in a bottom-10 Philly pen and Scherzer — perhaps a strengthening, healthier Scherzer — and Washington is a lean. The market has taken some air out of the play, but NATIONALS (-118) is still solid.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE RUN LINE — Nationals -1.5 (+135)/Phillies +1.5 (-162).
Over/Under (O/U)
Few Scherzer starts get tagged with an 8, let alone an 8.5. The Nats ace hasn’t been going 7-8 innings per start, so that certainly impacts Wednesday’s number. So is “wind out, hot, and humid” in the weather report.
There are some overcooked surface numbers for both offenses. The lean is on the UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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