The Washington Nationals (12-20) and Philadelphia Phillies (15-15) play the second contest of a four-game series Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Nationals-Phillies MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Nationals at Phillies: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Corbin owns a 3.82 ERA through 6 starts.
- The veteran lefty is facing Philadelphia for a second straight start. He allowed 2 runs over 6 innings last Wednesday. He has logged a sub-3.00 ERA against the Phillies over the last two years and current Philly bats own a lackluster .666 OPS against
Nola has carded an even 3.00 ERA through 6 starts.
- The right-hander pitched against Corbin in that Aug. 26 game and earned a 3-2 victory. Nola’s pitch count in that game hit a season-high 113.
- Nola has thus far fanned 12 batters per nine innings on the strength of a 12.9% swing-and-miss rate. Both figures are would-be career highs.
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Nationals at Phillies: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Nationals
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
Phillies
- RP Jose Alvarez (groin) out
- 2B Scott Kingery (back) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Nationals at Phillies: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML)
The market has these odds well-bracketed, but the NATIONALS (+140) are a lean despite losing six of their last seven games. The Nats are not the second-half Nats of a year ago, but they are undervalued by their .375 win percentage.
The Nationals’ offense has cranked out a league-best .903 OPS on the road. Throw that in against a high-quality Nola but a Nola coming off a high pitch count, and add in the shaky Philly pen — you don’t get Washington as a 47-or-48% proposition, but you do get a value at +140.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 moneyline wager on the Nationals returns a profit of $14.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE RUN LINE — Nationals +1.5 (-154)/Phillies -1.5 (+125).
A shift toward +130 on the Philadelphia side brings a bracket move into play — taking the Nationals on the moneyline and the Phillies on the run line. Those prices would mitigate a loss on the one-run Philadelphia win.
Over/Under (O/U)
Tag the OVER 8.5 (-110) with a lean on this one. The second-division bullpens and Philadelphia’s proficiency against southpaws (.864 OPS) make for a solid play in a hitters’ yard. The starters are solid, but if the game goes a bit sideways there are several factors pointing to a double-digit total.
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