The New York Mets (61-67) host the Washington Nationals (55-72) Saturday at Citi Field for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Washington won the series opener Friday 2-1 in what was New York’s fourth straight game it has scored 2 or fewer runs. All the Nationals needed was a 2-run 3rd inning to win the contest.
Season series: Tied 6-6.
LHP Sean Nolin makes his third start for the Nationals. Nolin is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA (7 IP, 7 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 7 K across starts at the Mets (Aug. 12) and at the Milwaukee Brewers (Sunday).
RHP Marcus Stroman is New York’s projected starter. Stroman is 9-12 with a 2.85 ERA (145 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 26 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday.
- Stroman is 1-1 against Washington this season with a 4.82 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 12 K in two starts.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster (56 PA): 4.03 FIP with a .280 batting average, .346 wOBA, .451 expected slugging percentage, 25.0 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity.
Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Mets -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Mets 4, Nationals 2
Money line (ML)
PASS even though New York is the right side because there’s no way Mets (-220) has any value based on their recent form.
However, New York is still nine games above .500 at home this season, Washington is 15 games below .500 on the road and the Mets have a sizable edge in pitching.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-105) for a one-third unit despite the Mets being 14-33 ATS as a home favorite and the Nationals 25-23 ATS as a road underdog. Also, New York’s lineup is 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.
That said, Stroman is the far better starter and Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA following the All-Star Game.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (+105) for a half unit because we are a little late to the party as the Nationals-Mets opened with an 8.5-run total before both “sharp” and public money steamed it down the current number.
Furthermore, New York is 13-29-3 O/U as a home favorite, 21-30-2 O/U vs. NL East teams and 8-15 O/U when Stroman gets the start. The Under has cashed in Stroman’s last five starts as a favorite.
On top of that, the Mets are 7-13-2 O/U as a money line home favorite of -150 or greater with an average total of 7.0 runs scored. Also, Citi Field has the second-lowest runs scored by park factors in the majors.
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