The Washington Nationals (1-4) close out their three-game set with the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers (7-2) Sunday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. is going for the series sweep Sunday after winning 9-5 Saturday and 1-0 Friday.
Season series: Dodgers 2-0.
RHP Max Scherzer (0-0) makes his second start of the season for the Nationals. He took a no-decision Tuesday against the Atlanta Braves.
Scherzer pitched 6 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 5 hits with 4 home runs allowed. He struck out 9 with no walks in Washington’s 6-5 win. Three of the four homers were hit by All-Stars RF Ronald Acuña Jr. and 1B Freddie Freeman.
LHP Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for the Dodgers in the series finale.
Kershaw got a win in his last outing at the Oakland Athletics. He went 7 innings while striking out 8 with no walks while allowing only 1 earned run on 4 hits in L.A.’s 5-1 victory.
- 2021: 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.18 WHIP (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 14 H, 10 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.
- Career vs. Nationals: 12-3 with a 2.23 ERA (109 IP, 27 ER, 77 H, 126 K, 23 BB) in 17 appearances and 16 starts.
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Nationals at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-140) | Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Nationals 4, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS (+145) for a quarter-unit because Scherzer is still an ace and has always pitched well against the Dodgers.
Since arriving in Washington, Scherzer is 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA (33 IP, 6 ER, 24 H, 51 K, 11 BB) in 5 starts. All three of those Scherzer victories were at Dodger Stadium.
Furthermore, the last time these teams met—the 2019 National League Division Series—Kershaw lost Game 2 and blew a save in L.A.’s Game 5 loss by giving up two home runs in the top of the eighth inning.
So, while the Dodgers are the king of the mountain, the starting pitching matchup favors the Nationals.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the money wagered overnight has been on the Dodgers, but the Nationals have gotten cheaper on the run line, which could only mean bookmakers want more L.A. money.
Also, the Nationals have hit lefties really well since the beginning of last season; Washington is 11-6 vs. left-handed starters while ranked third in wRC+, OPS and wOBA vs. lefties.
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-140) for a half-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a half-unit based on the obvious reasons. The past two World Series champions have two aces on the mound who aren’t too far removed from their primes.
Lastly, more money is on the Under while more bets have been placed on the Over.
The money column is considered the “sharp” side of the market whereas the “average joe” makes up the bets placed column. Typically, it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money and not the crowd of people.
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