The Washington Nationals (17-22) and Chicago Cubs (21-21) meet for a Thursday matinee (2:20 p.m. ET) to close out a four-game series at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Joe Ross is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. Ross is 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9 in 35 2/3 IP over 7 starts.
The Nats right-hander is looking to bounce back from a shaky four-frame outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday (8 runs allowed on 8 hits and 3 walks).
RHP Trevor Williams is the projected starter for the Cubs. He is 2-2 with a 6.27 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 4.9 BB/9 in 33 IP over 8 starts.
Like Ross, Williams is also looking to rebound from an iffy start in his last. He was pulled after 2 IP in Detroit on Saturday. He has allowed 11 runs in his last 8 2/3 IP. Albeit in a small dose, current Washington bats own a .996 OPS against Williams.
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Nationals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-185) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 10 ( O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Nationals 5, Cubs 4
Money line (ML)
The Cubs took the first two games of the series by scores of 7-3 and 6-3. Washington battled back with a 4-3 win on Wednesday.
The Nats offense has performed well on the road with a high-contact .729 OPS and overall has Statcast figures that tell the story of a team hitting the ball better than the production shows in the scoring column. The Cubs’ Statcast numbers swing the other way.
Add in a strength-of-schedule component that calls for a Chicago fade. BACK WASHINGTON (+105).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on a juice-drowned run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over has gotten some attention early with lesser starters on the bump and with a 12-mile-an-hour breeze out to left in the weather forecast.
But a bit more respect for the starters than what shows in surface stats, Chicago’s quality bullpen (and one that generates a lot of ground balls), and the state of Major League Baseball in 2021 make for some contrarian bent here.
TAKE the UNDER 10 (-105).
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