The Washington Nationals (7-10) and Baltimore Orioles (11-8) battle in the third game of their series Saturday at 7:05 p.m. ET. We analyze the Nationals-Orioles’ MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
The O’s lead the season series 3-1 after the clubs split a Friday doubleheader (sort of). Baltimore won the completion of a suspended game 6-2, then the Nationals thumped the O’s 15-3 in the makeshift nightcap.
Nationals at Orioles: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Patrick Corbin at RHP Asher Wojciechowski
In three outings so far, Corbin (2-0, 2.50 ERA) has sustained his elite command (20:3 K:BB) and continues forcing a desirable amount of groundballs (53.1%).
- He struggled a bit away from Nationals Park last year (4.18 road ERA in 97 innings).
- In addition to that complication, the O’s held the second-best wOBA (.391) against left-handed pitching for 2020 through Thursday action.
Wojciechowski is again teasing that he could be Baltimore’s ace, spinning a 3.95 ERA in three starts with 15:5 K:BB in 13 2/3 innings.
- He has increased his slider usage (24.6% in 2019 to 42.4% this season, per Fangraphs), which could be a big reason his K/9 has jumped.
- Wojo doesn’t have a favorable home park, though, and he’s struggled in his career there (1-6, 4.92 ERA in 12 appearances).
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Nationals at Orioles: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Nationals
- OF Victor Robles (knee) questionable
- SP Stephen Strasburg (hand) questionable for next start
- RP Sean Doolittle (knee) out
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
- 1B Ryan Zimmerman (personal) opted out of 2020 season
- P Joe Ross (personal) opted out of 2020 season
Orioles
- SP John Means (COVID-19) questionable for Sunday
- RP Hunter Harvey (arm) out
- OF Trey Mancini (malignant tumor removed) likely out for season
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Nationals at Orioles: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Nationals 6, Orioles 4
Moneyline (ML)
- Nationals (-176)
- Orioles (+155)
Baltimore’s success versus lefty pitching could make a decent case to take the 1.5-times profit opportunity, but Corbin deserves the trust here, even if the return is light. BET the Nationals (-176) if you want something safer, though I have a better idea coming up.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Nationals would return a profit of $5.68.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Nationals -1.5 (-115)
- Orioles +1.5 (-106)
My prediction falls in line with this tight contrast, but I’d rather back Corbin if the lines are this close. BET Washington -1.5 (-115).
A winning $10 bet on the Nationals’ run line would return a profit of $8.70.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 9 (-115)
- Under 9 (-106)
My read on this total isn’t drastically different from the books, and my predicted total of 10 doesn’t push me far in one of these directions. PASS.
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