The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers reignite their Metropolitan Division rivalry Thursday at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto for a 4 p.m. ET puck drop. Top seed in Round 1 of the Eastern Conference playoffs is back on the line after the Boston Bruins took another loss Wednesday, against the Tampa Bay Lightning. We analyze the Capitals-Flyers NHL betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Capitals vs. Flyers: Projected starting goalies
Braden Holtby vs. Brian Elliott
Holtby was strong in a shootout loss to the Lightning Monday, stopping 26 of 28 shots faced. He and the Caps went 1-3 against the Flyers in the regular season. He stopped 30 of 31 shots in his one win in the series but gave up a total of 15 goals in the other three games.
Elliott will draw the start in net over Game 1 starter Carter Hart. It’s an odd pivot for the Flyers after Hart’s dominant playoff debut and his play against the Caps in the regular season. Elliott played to a .899 SV% and 2.87 GAA in 27 regular-season starts and four relief appearances. He went 2-0 against Washington with 50 saves on 54 shots.
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Capitals vs. Flyers: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Thursday at 3:50 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Flyers 4, Capitals 3
Moneyline (ML)
Take the value with the FLYERS (+105) against a Capitals (-125) team they dominated through the regular season. Elliott struggled for parts of the year, but he played two of his best games against these division rivals.
The Flyers got past the Bruins without any major contributions on the offensive end from Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux or Jakub Voracek. The emergence of the depth forwards was a promising sign, but expect to see more of the Big 3 against the Caps’ top trio of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Flyers to win in regulation or overtime returns a profit of $10.50.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Though I like the Flyers to win this game outright, the CAPITALS -1 (+135) are worth a small bet against the spread due to the nature of the line.
There’s no value in backing the Flyers +1 (-167). If they lose by a single goal, the bet will result in a push and the wager will be refunded. If they lose by two or more goals, the bet will be lost. Back the Flyers on the monyeline for the outright win, and hedge with a smaller wager on the Capitals to win by at least two at +135.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Caps and Flyers ranked seventh and ninth, respectively, by Corsi For Percentage (rate of total shot attempts, including blocked and missed shots) in the regular season. The Caps also outscored the Flyers 240-232 through 69 games.
The final two regular-season meetings featured a total of 16 goals. Take the OVER 6 (-121) with the safety of a push in a potential 4-2 win for either team.
Esten’s NHL betting record: 12-9
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