Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Capitals (26-19-6) and Toronto Maple Leafs (30-12-8) meet Sunday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Capitals vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Capitals cashed as -124 home favorites Thursday with a 3-2 shootout win vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins. LW Alex Ovechkin and LW Marcus Johansson both scored in regulation for the Capitals, who are just 4-6-0 in their last 10 games. The Capitals are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win in their previous contest.

The Maple Leafs lost as -196 home favorites Friday as the Ottawa Senators routed Toronto 6-2. RW Joey Anderson and RW William Nylander were the only goal scorers for the Maple Leafs in Toronto’s 1st loss at home since dropping a 5-1 decision to the Seattle Kraken as -230 favorites on Jan. 5. The Maple Leafs are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss by 3 or more goals in their previous contest.

This is the 3rd meeting this season between these teams. The Maple Leafs won the 1st meeting 3-2 as -209 home favorites on Oct. 13 and the Capitals won the most recent meeting 5-2 as +126 home underdogs on Dec. 17.

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Capitals at Maple Leafs odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:16 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Capitals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Maple Leafs -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Capitals +1.5 (-210) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +105 | U: -125)

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Capitals at Maple Leafs projected goalies

Darcy Kuemper (15-13-4, 2.54 GAA, .917 SV%, 5 SO) vs. Ilya Samsonov (16-5-2, 2.37 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO)

Kuemper faced the Maple Leafs once last season as a member of the Colorado Avalanche, allowing 3 goals on 8 shots before getting pulled in the 1st period. In 18 road starts this season, Kuemper is 7-8-2 and has allowed 41 goals on 516 shots, good for a 2.50 GAA and .921 SV%.

Samsonov has faced the Capitals twice this season and is 1-1-0, allowing 7 goals on 54 shots, good for a 3.50 GAA and .870 SV%. In 16 games at home (15 starts), Samsonov is 14-1-1 and has allowed 30 goals on 421 shots, good for a 1.95 GAA and .929 SV%.

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Capitals at Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Capitals 3

Moneyline

BET MAPLE LEAFS (-145).

Toronto is 4-1 vs. Washington in the last 5 meetings and should be extra motivated to bounce back after getting blown out by its provincial rival. The Capitals have not strung together back-to-back wins since Dec. 27 and should struggle to contain the league’s 8th-best offense (3.36 goals per game) coming off a bad loss.

Puck line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Capitals should be able to keep it close, but Washington +1.5 (-210) is a little overpriced. Bet the moneyline or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 6.5 (+105).

The Over is 6-1-1 in Washington’s last 8 games when its opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous contest and 4-1 in Toronto’s last 5 vs. the Metropolitan Division. These teams play high-scoring games vs. each other, with the Over hitting in 5 of the last 7 meetings, and Sunday’s matchup should be another offensive showcase.

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