In 2018, Adam Vinatieri showed the Colts he still had it.
The Indianapolis kicker went 23-27 (85.2%) on the year. Vinatieri’s 2018 marked the sixth consecutive time he had a field goal percentage of more than 85%. It wasn’t the version of Vinatieri that went 90% from field goal range, but he could still be competent, and he had never proven otherwise.
Then, 2019 happened. Vinatieri hit a wall and ended the year 17-25, just 68%. It seemed like there was no build up to it: for the first time in his illustrious career, Vinatieri’s age started showing.
What does this have to do with Dan Bailey? Hopefully, if you’re the Vikings, absolutely nothing. But it’s hard to say whether Bailey’s resurgent 2019 was a sign of more to come or a bright spot before a decline.
After Bailey had two seasons — one with the Cowboys and one with the Vikings — of making 75% of his field goals, the Vikings kept with him and were rewarded for it. Bailey finished last season 27-29, including 3-3 on kicks from 50 yards or more.
It looked like Bailey had figured it out once again and returned to a skill level that was reminiscent of his earlier seasons with Dallas. However, it’s so hard to predict when a player, especially a kicker, is going to fall off all of sudden. It happened to Vinatieri, it happened to Peyton Manning, it has happened to so many great players who stayed in the NFL and continued to compete against players younger than them.
Determining whether Bailey’s good seasons are behind him or not has even higher stakes for the Vikings this offseason, because Bailey is entering free agency. It’s hard to say whether the Vikings will go with Bailey for more year(s) or take a chance on a younger kicker with a worse resume.
Monetarily, Bailey likely wouldn’t break the bank, even for a team that is as strapped for cash as the Vikings. Spotrac doesn’t have a market value for Bailey right now, but his age mixed with past seasons that were inconsistent, would probably not command a huge salary. My guess is around $2 million, and probably not more than $3 million, a year.
It’s not a big dent in the salary cap, but if the Vikings sign him, he will be the No. 1 option for the foreseeable future, and that could spell trouble if he hits a wall. The Vikings might not be able to tell that Bailey isn’t the kicker he used to be before he has missed kicks early in the season. I don’t have to tell those who have watched Vikings kickers, that a miss can change a season. So should the Vikings re-sign a kicker who is coming off a good year, or find someone else? It’s hard to say right now, but I think the team should at least be looking for other options.