Want to win your survivor pool? Who to take in Week 1

NFL survivor pools, no matter what you call them, are fun to participate in. They are easy since you only pick one team per week. All the team has to do is win, no point spread involved.

But survivor pools are also difficult as you can only use a team once during the entire season. Not to mention, if you pick a team and it loses, you are eliminated.

The key is to pick teams which have the easiest path to victory each week. This does not mean using all the best teams first, though. If you do, you will be relying on teams which you don’t want to be counting on when it comes to crunch time at the end of the season. So, make sure to use your teams accordingly.

Don’t forget to look at trends as well.

For instance, the Indianapolis Colts (-7.5), who visit the Houston Texas Sunday, are the largest favorite of Week 1, according to Tipico Sportsbook as of Saturday, 1:23 a.m. ET. However, Indy hasn’t won a Week 1 game since 2013. In coach Frank Reich’s 4 seasons with the Colts, they are 0-4 straight up (SU) and 0-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1.

Are you sure you want to trust them and go against the trend?

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The chalk: Baltimore Ravens

Who they play: At New York Jets, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Chalk or not, I am riding with the Ravens in Week 1.

Jets QB Zach Wilson is out for several weeks with a knee injury. Many might think this is a good thing as backup QB Joe Flacco could be better. I don’t agree. Not only is Flacco more than broken down at this point of his career, but he is also a statue.

Behind an offensive line without OT Mekhi Becton (out for the season with chip fracture in right kneecap) and his replacement Duane Brown (shoulder injury), the Ravens pass rush will be able to get into the Jets’ backfield. With CBs Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey in the secondary, the Ravens will also make it difficult for anything to get going for the Jets on offense.

On the other side of the ball, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will not only run all over the Jets, but he will also use TE Mark Andrews and rookie TE Isaiah Likely to move the ball down the field. Jackson bet on himself by not signing a contract. I will bet on him and the Ravens to beat the overmatched Jets as -7.5-point favorites.

BALTIMORE IS MY FAVORITE SURVIVOR PLAY of the week. It will also be the most common play for many pools.

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Off the board: Kansas City Chiefs

Who they play: At Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

There is likely to be a spot later in the season when the Chiefs will be a more popular pick than this week. Whether it be a game against the Seattle Seahawks or someone else, the Chiefs always get a lot of play in survivor pools.

So, why take them here against what could be a good challenge on the road?

WR Tyreek Hill is gone (off to Miami). But the Chiefs still have QB Patrick Mahomes as well as TE Travis Kelce. The Cardinals secondary is banged up, meaning WRs Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling should have big games in their Kansas City debuts.

On defense, the Chiefs lost CB Tyrann Mathieu (now with the Saints), but they drafted DE George Karlaftis to provide a pass rush alongside DT Chris Jones and DE Frank Clark. This will make a significant difference against a Cardinals team with a sub-par offensive line.

The Cardinals will also be without their best player in WR DeAndre Hopkins (6-game suspension for violating league’s PED policy) and fellow WR Rondale Moore (hamstring), who was downgraded to “out” as of Friday night.

I love the Ravens this week. But if you want to save them for later in the season – or you’re in a survivor pool where you must pick 2 teams – look toward the desert and Kansas City.

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Others to consider

Philadelphia Eagles: At Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

San Francisco 49ers: At Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Tennessee Titans: Home vs. New York Giants, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

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