The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4, 3-3 in ACC) host the No. 9 Wake Forest (8-0, 5-0) Saturday at Kenan Memorial Stadium with the kickoff scheduled for noon ET. Below, we look at the Wake Forest vs. North Carolina odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Wake Forest has the fifth-highest scoring offense in the country (43.4 points per game) and has put up at least five TDs in every game this season. The Demon Deacons are 4-4 against the spread (ATS) and 3-5 Over/Under (O/U).
North Carolina has alternated between winning and losing its last six games with the latest being a 44-34 loss at the No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Tar Heels are 3-5 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
These teams have met twice since North Carolina head coach Mack Brown returned to the program in 2019. The Tar Heels beat the Demon Deacons in a 59-53 shootout last season but failed to cover as 13-point home favorites. Wake Forest beat North Carolina 24-18 as a 3-point home favorite\ in 2019.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Wake Forest at North Carolina odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Wake Forest +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | North Carolina -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wake Forest +2.5 (-103) | North Carolina -2.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 77.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Wake Forest at North Carolina odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 41, Wake Forest 34
Money line
This is your quintessential “Pros vs. Joe’s” spot and I have no choice but to BET NORTH CAROLINA (-140) regardless of how good Wake Forest looks.
The public generally overvalues rated teams, especially in conference play, and we’re seeing that in the betting market for this contest.
According to Pregame.com, even though three-fourths of the bets are on Wake Forest, nearly 60% of the cash wagered is on North Carolina.
So, while the public is taking Wake Forest, the whales are hammering North Carolina. It’s wise to follow the money in sports betting when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Wake Forest’s awful run defense will help North Carolina dictate the pace of this game and execute more efficiently on offense. Wake Forest’s defense is 114th in rushing yards allowed per game. While North Carolina averages more than 200 yards per game on the ground.
Finally, the mix is perfect for a North Carolina upset. Tar Heels QB Sam Howell is a future pro, UNC’s coaching staff has the program trending up and the Tar Heels have the chance to spoil an in-state rival’s undefeated season.
BET NORTH CAROLINA (-140) for 1 unit.
Against the spread
PASS since this figures to be a high-scoring game and North Carolina -2.5 (-117) isn’t much cheaper than the money line. I’d rather just pay the extra vig and not fuss with North Carolina laying points.
Over/Under
PASS since I won’t normally bet an Over for a total that lives in the 70-point neighborhood.
The market has steamed the Wake Forest-North Carolina total up from the 75.5-point opener and I don’t have a reason to fade the market.
Both offenses are awesome, both defenses are terrible and these teams combined for 112 points last season with the same quarterbacks and coaching staffs.
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