Judging by the spread of No. 11 Villanova’s game Tuesday against No. 9 Providence, one might think the matchup was between a Big East power and one of the conference’s middle-tier teams. Not the top two teams in the conference, which it is.
Villanova is favored by 9.5 points at Tipico Sportsbook, a number that feels extremely large even with home-court advantage on its side.
Providence is 24-3 going into Tuesday’s game and riding a three-game winning streak that includes a 21-point drubbing of Creighton to clinch their first-ever Big East regular season title. The Friars are ranked ninth in the country, two spots ahead of Villanova.
The Wildcats are 21-7 and coming off a loss on the road to No. 21 UConn. The two-point defeat was a push against the spread, marking the fourth time in the last five games they’ve failed to cover, according to Covers.com. The one outlier was their first meeting against Providence, where they covered a four-point spread by one.
This time, the spread has more than doubled the previous number and Villanova’s recent track record of close games doesn’t inspire confidence. Overall, the Wildcats are 14-13-1 ATS and just 3-7-1 in their last 11. They haven’t won a game by double digits since Feb. 5 when they beat UConn by 11.
Providence is 16-11 ATS and hasn’t lost a game by double digits since a 32-point blowout to Marquette on Jan. 4. They also lost to Virginia by 18 on Nov. 23. The Friars shot just 33% and 24% in those games, respectively. Barring another dreadful shooting night for Providence, Villanova will likely have its hands full.