The No. 4 Villanova Wildcats (13-2, 8-1 Big East) visit the No. 17 Creighton Bluejays (15-5, 11-4) Saturday for a conference battle at CHI Health Center Omaha. The tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Villanova-Creighton college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Villanova at Creighton: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:24 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Villanova -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Creighton +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Villanova -2.5 (-110) | Creighton +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 145.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Villanova at Creighton: Three things to know
- Villanova got right back on track with two double-digit conference wins following its second loss of the season, a 70-59 setback at St. John’s as a 9-point favorite Feb 3. However, the Wildcats haven’t been a sure-fire bet lately as they are 5-1 overall but just 3-3 ATS in their last six games.
- Creighton’s results over the past few weeks mirror Villanova’s as the Bluejays are also on a two-game win streak after losing as double-digit home favorites to Georgetown. Creighton has gone 5-1 overall but 2-4 ATS in its previous six games.
- The Bluejays beat the snot out of the Wildcats 76-51 in their second meeting last season to snap a three-game skid in the series. Creighton has upset Villanova twice in the last five meetings and has covered in three of those contests.
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Villanova at Creighton: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Creighton 78, Villanova 73
Money line (ML)
Slight lean on CREIGHTON (+120) for a one-fifth-unit because when looking at the numbers, it appears the wrong team is favored. I get it: Villanova owns the Big East, is a national title contender (as per usual) and is one of the more popular basketball programs in the country.
However, Creighton has a higher effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) and its foes have a lower eFG% than Villanova’s. In fact, the Wildcats rank 265th in opponent’s field-goal percentage and 314th in 3-point defense.
My only explanation for the Villanova-Creighton pricing is that bookmakers know the Wildcats are going to get a bunch of public money regardless so they might as well make Villanova more expensive.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET CREIGHTON +2.5 (-110) instead of or heavier than its money line since it’s the wiser play.
This is a Pros vs. Joes situation in the betting market with more money coming in on Creighton, but more bets have been placed on Villanova, according to Pregame.com. Typically, the sharp side of the market is the money column, so let’s follow the money for this game.
Over/Under (O/U)
I’m on the OVER 145.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit because both teams take and make a high volume of 3’s and force opponents to beat them from behind the arc. Admittedly, it’s not a strong handicap, so think of it more as a lean.
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