The Vanderbilt Commodores (0-7 overall, 0-7 SEC) hope to get their first win of the season when they visit the Missouri Tigers (3-3, 3-3) Saturday for a noon ET kickoff. Below, we analyze the Vanderbilt-Missouri college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Vanderbilt at Missouri: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Vanderbilt +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Missouri -589 (bet $589 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Vanderbilt +14.5 (-115) | Missouri -14.5 (-106)
- Over/Under: 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Vanderbilt at Missouri: Three things to know
- Vanderbilt got rolled last week 38-17 by Florida but covered as a 31.5-point dog. Taking a glass half-full approach to looking at Vanderbilt’s winless season thus far, the Commodores have covered three straight games and are 4-3 ATS on the season. Vanderbilt PK Sarah Fuller would become the first female to play for a Power 5 football program in college football history if she takes the field Saturday.
- Missouri came out of a 3-week COVID-caused bye to beat South Carolina 17-10 last week, covering as a 4.5-point favorite. First-year head coach Eliah Drinkwitz took over the Tigers program following one season as the Appalachian State head coach. Drinkwitz went 12-1 at Appalachian State and the Mountaineers were ranked as high as No. 19 last season.
- The Commodores snapped a 3-game losing streak to the Tigers last season with a 21-14 win as 21-point underdogs.
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Vanderbilt at Missouri: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Missouri 27, Vanderbilt 17
Money line (ML)
It would be a real alpha move on my part to take Vanderbilt to get its first win of the season. Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason’s job is in serious jeopardy as he’s yet to have a winning season since taking over the program from James Franklin in 2014.
But the Commodores’ motivation to avoid going winless isn’t a strong enough angle for me to take a flyer on the underdogs. No way I’m risking nearly six times my potential return to bet Missouri.
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread (ATS)
The only way to play this is taking the conference foe plus the points so I lean VANDERBILT +14.5 (-115). I don’t know what BetMGM sees in Missouri to make it even a two-touchdown favorite. Outside of Missouri’s rush defense, there isn’t a unit on either team that’s above average.
I’d even take Missouri’s rush defense results with a grain of salt considering it hasn’t play top-notch rush offenses. Vanderbilt has some trends backing it: The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as road underdogs and the Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.
Officially, I lean VANDERBILT +14.5 (-115) for a half-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Give me UNDER 50.5 (-110) for 1.5 units. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Vanderbilt-Missouri meetings and 13-3 in Tigers’ last 16 games as favorites.
Missouri’s offensive line hasn’t gotten much push this year: The Commodores rank 114th in opponent’s line yards per carry, 106th in both opponent’s opportunity rate and stuff rate. This leads me to believe Missouri’s offense could be one-dimensional even against a terrible Vanderbilt defense.
Again, I don’t know why anyone would be confident in a Missouri pass game that is 51st in the nation in passing yards per game. Something tells me Vanderbilt’s defense shows up Saturday vs. Missouri.
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