The Utah Jazz (4-1) heads to the “Cream City” Sunday to play the Milwaukee Bucks (3-3) for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Utah had its four-game winning streak snapped Friday after losing to the Chicago Bulls 107-99 as 3.5-point road favorites. The Jazz have the highest net rating in the West, the best defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%) and are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
Milwaukee has lost back-to-back home games to the Minnesota Timberwolves Wednesday (113-108 as 6-point favorites) and to the San Antonio Spurs Friday (102-93 as 7-point favorites). The banged-up Bucks are 17th in net rating, 3-3 ATS and play at the fastest pace in the Association.
The Jazz are 4-1 overall and ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucks, which includes winning last year’s regular-season series, 2-0.
Jazz at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Jazz -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Bucks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jazz -2.5 (-110) | Bucks +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Jazz at Bucks key injuries
Jazz
- PG Mike Conley (knee) questionable
- PF Rudy Gay (heel) out
Bucks
- PG Jrue Holiday (ankle) doubtful
- C Brook Lopez (back) doubtful
- SG Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) out
Jazz at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 116, Jazz 112
Money line
Even though the basketball data supports the Jazz (-135), I’m going to take the BUCKS (+135) as a home underdog.
Simply put, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton won’t allow the Bucks to lose three straight at home. Especially against another title-contending squad.
While Utah has owned Milwaukee in their recent meetings, Giannis and Middleton have played well in those contests.
In fact, Giannis is averaging 36.0 points per game (PPG) on 61.0% true shooting with 12.5 rebounds (RPG) and 5.0 assists per game (APG) in the last four Jazz-Bucks meetings. Middleton is averaging 23.6 PPG on 48.0% 3-point shooting with 7.8 RPG.
Also, this feels like a buy-low spot for the Bucks. For instance, according to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the action is on the Jazz and oddsmakers have moved this game from a pick ’em on the opener to Utah laying 2.5 points.
Finally, we are getting Milwaukee at a cheap price because of cluster injuries to its starting 5. But, if Conley cannot play Sunday then Utah’s health edge is significantly reduced. The Bucks get forward Bobby Portis back, supposedly, and the Jazz are still without backup forward Rudy Gay.
It’s more of a “LEAN” pending Conley’s final game status otherwise I’m on the BUCKS (+135).
Against the spread
Definitely BET the BUCKS +2.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of Milwaukee’s money line since it does provide a little insurance for what’s a coin-flip game most likely.
Furthermore, since money is coming in on the Jazz, let’s wait until closer to tip-off to see if the Bucks’ spread goes to 3 or higher. If Conley plays then the Jazz will definitely get more expensive.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 224.5 (-108) since the Bucks play at the fastest pace and the Jazz have the highest 3-point volume in the league.
On top of that, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game with the presumed sharp side of the market backing the Over whereas the public is betting on the Under.
Since I can explain this discrepancy in the market, I’m comfortable placing a SMALL WAGER on the OVER 224.5 (-108).
The “wiseguys” see Milwaukee’s pace (more possessions) and Utah’s 3-point volume (more points) as the path to the Over. The public sees how Conley’s absence influenced Utah’s offense Saturday and the cluster injuries for the Bucks. Both make a good point, so it’s only a “LEAN”.
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