The Utah Jazz (16-5) stop by State Farm Arena Thursday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Atlanta Hawks (10-11). Below, we analyze the Jazz-Hawks NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Jazz rebounded after a loss to the Denver Nuggets Sunday snapped their 11-game win streak. They beat the Detroit Pistons 117-105 Tuesday but missed the cover by a half-point. Over its last 10 games, Utah is second in net rating, rebounding percentage and true shooting percentage.
Atlanta lost its second straight game Wednesday night to the Dallas Mavericks 122-116 as 2-point home underdogs. The Hawks are 5-5 straight up but 6-4 against the spread over their last 10 games but aside from the Mavs, the other four losses were against teams with above-.500 records.
Utah is 3-1 vs. Atlanta since the Hawks selected PG Trae Young in the 2018 NBA Draft, and won both meetings last season, but is 2-2 ATS in those games.
Jazz at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Jazz -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Hawks +275 (bet $100 to win $275)
- Against the spread/ATS: Jazz -7.5 (-120) | Hawks +7.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Jazz at Hawks: Key injuries
Jazz
- None affecting the betting odds.
Hawks
- C Onyeka Okongwu (Achilles) probable
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
- SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) out
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Jazz at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Jazz 117, Hawks 103
Money line (ML)
PASS since I like the Jazz but no way I’d lay -350 on their money line.
Against the spread (ATS)
There are a few reasons why I’m on the JAZZ -7.5 (-120) in this spot.
First, the Hawks thrive at the charity stripe, leading the league in FTA/FGA rate and Young—who has attempted the most free throws in the NBA—is a big part of that.
However, Utah has the second-best defensive FTA/FGA rate and Young has struggled against the Jazz thus far in his career. He is averaging 21.3 points on .333/.310/.759% shooting with a 98 offensive rating in four career games vs. Utah.
Second, Atlanta has been a bad bet when playing with no rest. The Hawks have the lowest cover percentage and worst ATS margin in the second of a back-to-back since the beginning of last season.
Lastly, the Jazz have the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Association whereas the Hawks give up the third-most offensive rebounds per game.
TAKE JAZZ -7.5 (-120) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
If I’m going to take a big ATS favorite to cover, I generally lean to the Under because typically the game is essentially decided early in the fourth quarter. Also, it has been profitable fading the public misconception of Atlanta being a high-octane offense.
The regular fan sees Young’s 30-plus foot bombs but maybe hasn’t noticed Atlanta is 24th in effective field-goal percentage and has a 6-15 O/U record.
I lean UNDER 225.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit.
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Also see:
- Rookie Wire Power Rankings: Immanuel Quickley floats to the top spot (Rookie Wire)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Jazz | Hawks
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