Andy Staples of On3 took an early stab at who would be the 12 teams who would make the newly-expanded College Football Playoff. And while it doesn’t look incredibly different than we’ve seen from some other outlets, there is certainly some intrigue.
Now, this is all in good fun, as every year, while the eventual national champion may be the favorite, usually the preseason predictions end up looking silly once the season actually culminates — unless you’re Desmond Howard, as the former Michigan football Heisman Trophy winner accurately predicted three of the four entrants a year ago (Michigan, Alabama, Texas, and Florida State were his choices).
So while we don’t agree with the selections Staples made (and we have our reasons) we’re going ahead and predicting what will happen if his field of 12 is selected.
So let’s talk about the field here.
The first four are the conference champions, but we think that only one of the four is (close to) a lock in Georgia. Ohio State is loaded with talent, yes, but still possesses a lot of the same problems it’s had the past three years, particularly along the offensive line. Florida State should be the favorite in the ACC, but Clemson could challenge, and Miami actually has a favorable schedule and could end up having a surprisingly good year. Kansas State is in prime position in the new-look Big 12, but Utah, Oklahoma State, and Kansas will have something to say once the season comes.
The rest of the entries are mostly fine, but Oregon and Texas are for sure too low, though how they do in their new conferences certainly could see them outside of that top four.
Onto the games.
Outside of the season opener, Notre Dame doesn’t have the hardest schedule on the planet. It plays at Texas A&M, but otherwise has Louisville and Florida State on the schedule as the next-toughest games (USC, too). Michigan, however, has a murderer’s row with Texas, USC, at Washington, Oregon, and Ohio State all on the schedule.
We think that Michigan will be much more battle-tested and with this being a home game in Ann Arbor, that the Wolverines would prevail.
Prediction: Michigan over Notre Dame
We think Texas is being undervalued here, and while Ole Miss was very aggressive in the transfer portal, there were some losses (like Quinshon Judkins to Ohio State) and the Rebels have yet to prove it can exist on a defensive plane needed in order to truly contend. Texas, however, returns Quinn Ewers at quarterback, and though the schedule becomes tougher with a trip to Michigan and now being in the SEC (just as Ole Miss has been), we just feel that a home game for the Longhorns would see a burnt orange victory.
Prediction: Texas over Ole Miss
Boise State would be the Group of Five entrant into the fray here and the Broncos would be no match for Alabama, especially at home. Though there is a regime change with Kalen DeBoer taking over for the GOAT, Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide have way too much firepower, and the home crowd would make things even worse for the Idaho-based challenger.
Prediction: Alabama over Boise State
While Oregon could learn what Nebraska did when it joined the Big Ten (that it’s much tougher than imagined), we don’t expect that to necessarily be the case for the Ducks. Oregon will have three tough games in the regular season (Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin) but if all goes well, it will also make its first Big Ten Championship Game, a year after losing to Washington in the final Pac-12 Championship. Tennessee, however, won’t likely have the same luxury playing in a vaunted conference — it plays Georgia, Alabama, NC State, and Oklahoma this year. This could be a tough one, but give us the home team.
Prediction: Oregon over Tennessee
Now, if Ohio State is No. 1 in the CFP rankings, that means the Buckeyes beat Michigan the first time, and potentially a second time in the Big Ten Championship Game. However, given the past three years and what we said earlier about OSU having not fixed its problems (ahem…line play!) even if it beat Michigan once in Columbus, we wouldn’t be certain it would happen again on a neutral site.
We’re going full homer here, but mostly because we believe Michigan has a strong chance to win in Columbus in the first place. So we’re rectifying that here.
Prediction: Michigan over Ohio State
This would be a fun one, and certainly last year’s Texas could contend with the Bulldogs. And while the offensive line should be spectacular in Austin, we’re not sure about the defensive line after some personnel losses — at least in comparison to UGA. Let’s be real: Georgia is still on the next level, and should be the favorite entering 2024. It would win this matchup.
Prediction: Georgia over Texas
Chris Klieman shouldn’t be doubted, but a playoff game for the Wildcats against a proven Alabama team (albeit with a new staff) is another thing. Kalen DeBoer has won at every stage, too, and just has a more talented roster.
Prediction: Alabama over Kansas State
We like Mike Norvell’s team, but really aren’t sure that they’ll be up this high. D.J. Uiagalelei certainly should be able to pick up where Jordan Travis left off, but in the QB battle between Uiagalelei and Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel, we’re higher on Gabriel at this juncture.
The lower seed wins again.
Prediction: Oregon over Florida State
A rematch of last year’s Rose Bowl classic, both teams lost a lot of high-end playmakers from the year before. Both also have new head coaches. But while Michigan hopes that Alex Orji can become Jalen Milroe, Alabama already has Jalen Milroe. Though the Wolverine defense is deep and should be among the best in the nation, the offense just isn’t on the Crimson Tide’s level in this renewed classic.
Prediction: Alabama over Michigan
Would love to pick Oregon here, but Georgia is just too loaded. The Ducks have managed to win some tough games in the past, but haven’t won a championship. This game will have a championship game feel, the type where Oregon tends to fall short. Yes, Dan Lanning is building his team in the image of his former employer, but the new boss still can’t beat the old boss.
Prediction: Georgia over Oregon
We’re really doing this again? Haven’t these two teams had enough?
It will be different, with Nick Saban not on the sideline for the Crimson Tide. And that’s precisely the type of narrow opening Kirby Smart needs, as he’s struggled to put away his mentor — save for the one national championship game, which was a rematch of the 2021 SEC Championship.
Kalen DeBoer makes the national championship for a second straight year, albeit with a different team. Yet, the result is the same.
National champion: Georgia