The expectations continue to rise for Penn State after a 5-0 start.
The Nittany Lions appear to be solid candidates to fill one of the spots in the New Year’s Six bowl lineup this season, but which bowl game will be the ultimate destination?
Big games remaining on the schedule will weigh heavily in the bowl projections for Penn State and everyone else, but the updated bowl projections from USA TODAY Sports has Penn State slated to play in one of the New Year’s Six.
Erick Smith updated his bowl projections for the season and has Michigan at the top of the pack. Regardless of being the No. 1 or No. 2 team, Smith has Michigan heading to the Rose Bowl to face Florida State in Pasadena in one national semifinal and Georgia facing Texas in the Sugar Bowl.
So where does that leave Penn State? With the Rose Bowl used for the playoff and Michigan being the Big Ten champion in this scenario, Penn State would be among the at-large candidates for the remaining New Year’s Six bowl games. According to Smith, the Orange Bowl would be the bowl game extending an invite to the Nittany Lions.
The Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to take either the ACC champion or the next best option from the conference for one slot in the game. With Florida State in the playoff, that leaves the Orange Bowl with North Carolina in Smith’s latest projection.
The Orange Bowl’s other spot goes to the highest-ranked available team from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame. So perhaps that gives you an idea of how Smith sees this season playing out after the bye week for Penn State.
With the Orange Bowl projection, it is likely Smith predicts Penn State will rank higher than Ohio State at the end of the year. The most likely way that happens is with Penn State getting a road win at Ohio State in a few weeks. If Michigan is in the playoff, it stands to reason Smith sees Penn State losing to Michigan, his top seed in the playoff. In no world would a two-loss Penn State end up being ranked higher than a one-loss Ohio State.
Unless Ohio State is lining up a loss somewhere else on the schedule outside of its games against Penn State and Michigan?
See all of Smith’s updated bowl projections on USA TODAY Sports.
Follow Kevin McGuire on Threads, Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook.