The start of the new college football season kicks off next month with the Week 0 schedule getting things started at the end of August. And now that the dust has settled on spring football and a whole lot has happened in the college football headlines since then, ESPN took the time in the middle of the summer to give the Football Power Index a fresh update to simulate what the 2022 season could look like.
Penn State still appears to be on track for a winning season, but the latest update thinks a little less of the Nittany Lions than it did after the spring update. But fear not, as the changes are minuscule.
ESPN’s latest FPI update gives Penn State an FPI of 12.6, good for 16th overall in the nation. Penn State has a projected record of 8.0-4.1, or 8-4 if you want to round it to the nearest whole numbers. This is the same projected record Penn State had in the spring update to the FPI, but the odds of winning the Big Ten East and Big Ten championship saw a slight decrease.
Penn State has a 5.0% chance to win the Big Ten East this season according to the FPI, which is down from 6.6% from the spring. Naturally, the chances of winning the Big Ten also went down from 4.3% in the spring to 3.1%.
Penn State’s biggest obstacles in the Big Ten are Ohio State and Michigan. The Buckeyes are ranked second in the FPI with a 73.1% chance to win the Big Ten according to the updated FPI. Michigan is second in the Big Ten and sixth overall in the FPI with a 8.3% chance to win the Big Ten.
Penn State has the same projected record as Michigan State (No. 15 overall in the FPI) but the Nittany Lions have a slightly higher chance of winning the division and conference compared to the Spartans (why MSU is No. 15 and Penn State is No. 16 is beyond comprehension given those numbers, but we’ll move on from that without much comment).
After back-to-back seasons seeing Penn State play .500 football, an eight-win season would certainly be a step forward for the program. But perhaps the Nittnay Lions could be flying under the radar a bit.
Getting to eight wins is certainly manageable for Penn State, and a good showing in September with road games at Purdue and Auburn would go a long way to getting there, and perhaps beyond.
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