Up-and-down start to SEC play has Gators steady in ESPN’s BPI

Losing to Kentucky seemed crippling for Florida’s chances at a top-10 breakthrough on the ESPN Basketball Index, but a 2-0 response from the Gators has UF holding steady.

Florida’s standing on the ESPN Basketball Power Index has varied with the start of conference play, but the Gators are at an all-too-familiar No. 13 on the BPI as of Monday following three games against SEC teams.

Florida opened the new year with a six-point loss to Kentucky where both teams put up triple digits, then a 30-point thrashing of then-No. 1 Tennessee and a not-so-impressive win against Arkansas on the road stabilized things. Hence, Gators Wire’s decision to wait until the middle of the month to pick this series back up from the break.

Note: The BPI is updated daily; however Gators Wire provides weekly updates so as not to overwhelm fans with constant changes. We took two weeks this time.

Losing to Kentucky hurt Florida’s projections, no doubt, but a 30-point win over a No. 1 undid most of that damage. While the BPI doesn’t say it outright, the Kentucky game was a tossup in the projections, so losing it doesn’t hurt as much as winning an assumed loss (Tennessee) helps.

Florida’s BPI is 17.0, further broken down as 9.1 (17th) on offense and 8.0 (21st) on defense. Compared to the New Year’s Eve BPI numbers — 17.0, 8.7 and 8.3 — the offensive rating is back up above nine and the defense is down a bit after giving up 106 to Kentucky. Those changes are good for a three-spot improvement on offense and a seven-spot dip on defense.

“The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”

ESPN BPI Projections

ESPN now projects Florida to finish the season with a 24.3-6.77 overall record and an 11.3-6.7 record in conference play — 0.7 more than last week — based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. With no more non-conference games on the schedule, those two projections will change identical amounts week-by-week moving forward.

The Gators have 5.1% odds to win the conference, down 0.6% from two weeks ago. Florida faces the 18th-toughest schedule moving forward with Kentucky and one-half of a home-and-home against Tennessee in the books. The next major matchup won’t be for a few weeks, though, barring changes in the rankings.

NCAA Tournament Resume

The 15-1 start has the Gators ranked sixth overall in strength of record — down from fifth two weeks ago — which translates to a No. 2 seed if the season were to end today. Three of the four projected No. 1 seeds — AuburnAlabama, Iowa State and Tennessee — are SEC programs on Florida’s schedule.

Florida’s overall strength of schedule is now No. 72, and its non-conference strength of schedule is No. 127. The Gators only have are now 3-1 in  “quality matchups” (against the top 50 in BPI), with wins over Arkansas, North Carolina and Tennessee.

ESPN gives Florida 1.1% odds of winning the NCAA Tournament and 3.5% odds of making it to the championship game. A Final Four appearance (9.4%) or Elite Eight appearance (20.6%) continue to see increased odds, as do the chances of a Sweet 16 (44.0%) and Round of 32 appearance (78.9%).

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