Part of the frustration with the Iowa Hawkeyes‘ (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) start to the season is the feeling that it just might not really get much better the rest of the way. Wrapped up in that is the realization that Iowa’s chief goal entering the 2022 season—tangible offensive improvement—has been a complete failure as the numbers bear out below.
Time will obviously tell on that front in the Hawkeyes’ final six games whether or not much can be gained from this season, but offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Brian Ferentz didn’t share any groundbreaking answers on how to fix the offense last week in his anticipated meeting with the media.
“I think, obviously right now we’re all disappointed and frustrated by our performance offensively on Saturdays, but I’m proud of the preparation and the effort the guys have put in on a weekly basis, seven days a week. The effort and the preparation has been excellent.
“The reality is right now the production certainly hasn’t been what we expected, and it’s not meeting our level of expectation, most importantly. I felt like we had seen consistent improvement going into the Illinois week, but unfortunately, I think we took a step back that night over in Champaign,” Brian Ferentz said of the offense in his opening remarks.
As it currently sits, Iowa owns the nation’s No. 127 scoring offense at 14.7 points per game scored and the country’s dead last total offense. The Hawkeyes rush for just 82.2 yards per game, which ranks 127th. Iowa throws for just 156.5 yards per game, which ranks 120th.
One of the main catalysts for the Hawkeyes’ offensive failures are their continued struggles on third down. Iowa converts just 29.6% of the time on third down, which is down from the 34% conversion rate the Hawkeyes had a season ago and ranks 124th nationally.
Iowa’s red zone offense has gotten worse as compared to last season, too. For a team that ranked 122nd nationally in red zone offense in 2021, that’s hard to do. Still, the Hawkeyes have accomplished just that, scoring on just two-thirds of their red zone trips. Thus far, Iowa has turned 12 red zone trips into just 40 points, or three rushing touchdowns, one passing touchdown and four field goals.
Give Iowa credit in at least one respect. The Hawkeyes are turning it over less than they did in 2021 so far with just six combined turnovers, three fumbles lost and three interceptions. That’s the only area Iowa has improved offensively, though.
Yards per play is down from 4.67 last season to just 4.09 per play this season. Iowa only averaged 65.1 offensive plays per game last season and that figure is down to 58.3 offensive plays per game on average.
All of this is to say that Iowa has failed miserably in its main goal entering 2022, which was to see marked offensive improvement. Instead, at the midway point, the Hawkeyes have actually seen almost universal offensive regression in the key statistical categories.
Unless the Iowa coaching staff has a trick up its sleeve it’s not revealed yet, it doesn’t look or sound like there’s any immediate offensive changes to expect.
“Right now, I don’t think that was the problem tonight. I mean, as I stood there and watched. In fact, I thought Spencer (Petras) did some good things,” Iowa head football coach Kirk Ferentz said when asked if the staff would evaluate a potential quarterback change. “Missed a couple throws and that’s probably going to be every quarterback every game. Yeah, my guess is that’s what we’re going to be doing, but we’ll talk about everything.”
Ferentz shot down the idea of replacing his son as offensive coordinator, too.
“Making the change? No, no, no, no. I mean, we won 10 games last year. I don’t know if you’re aware of that, but…so, I look at that, and we’ve won a lot of games since 2015. So, you know, we’re not doing well enough right now. I think that’s fairly obvious and we’re going to work on solutions, figure out what we can do to get better,” Ferentz said.
Again, Iowa probably is what it is. There’s no wholesale changes to be had or to be expected.
“It’s a tough loss, but, no, we are who we are right now and we can’t change dramatically but hopefully we can find some ways to be more effective. To the point earlier, I think you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand we need to score more points,” Ferentz said.
Therein lies the crux of the problem for Iowa. Everyone, including the coaching staff, understands that offensive improvement was the primary objective entering the season and recognizes it remains the biggest key for the Hawkeyes’ potential success the rest of the way. Having said that, there’s no tinkering taking place and therefore expecting better results seems like a foolhardy gamble.
It’s college football so it’s never impossible, but a win at Ohio State this weekend for Iowa feels as unlikely as maybe ever before. Drop this contest and suddenly Iowa is 3-4 (1-3 Big Ten) with one of those losses to perhaps the Hawkeyes’ now primary competition for the Big Ten West in Illinois.
Nobody else in the West looks like any kind of immovable object and it’s not unfeasible that Illinois could drop three of its final five games and wind up in a three-way tie with the Hawkeyes if Iowa manages to control its own destiny following Ohio State and win out.
Still, banking on the likelihood of any of that seems crazy at this stage. And, again, it all hinges on whether or not Iowa can improve in any way, shape or form offensively. Right now, none of that seems particularly likely, which brings us to the point of this piece.
Has the story on the 2022 Iowa season already been written? If it was about offensive improvement, then it doesn’t look or feel like that’s around the corner at any stop particularly soon. Is this season just about the slow grind toward Brian Ferentz’s inevitable firing? Or will it be offensive line coach George Barnett that’s let go instead?
Or, will none of that happen and Hawkeye fans will simply be sent on this tortured merry-go-round once more next season? Staff changes aside, it feels like Hawkeye fans already know that this 2022 season isn’t what they’d hoped it would be.
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