Our unblemished record fell by the wayside last Sunday as the New York Jets failed to cover the 10.5-point spread on the road against the Denver Broncos. (Deep analysis: Covering is almost always tougher when a team doesn’t score.) Below, we look at the top NFL underdog picks and predictions of Week 4.
Nevertheless, we hit on the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers, who both won outright on the road, to improve to 8-1 against the spread on the season. Seven of our nine underdog picks so far have notched straight-up, wins as well.
Jump aboard for Week 4 to see if we can keep the train rolling.
Also see: All Week 4 odds and lines
NFL underdog predictions: Week 4
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Carolina Panthers +4.5 (-115) at Dallas Cowboys
QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were certainly impressive in their 2021 Big D debut Monday night, smashing the rival Philadelphia Eagles 41-21 to improve to 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
The Panthers will be without injured do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey so why are we on Carolina here in this meeting of 3-0 ATS teams? Three reasons:
- The Panthers have a distinct rest advantage having last played a week ago Thursday night.
- The Carolina defense has been an underrated force so far, leading the league in sacks (14), total QB pressures (47) and rushing defense (45 yards allowed per game, 2.6 yards per carry).
- It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Cowboys coming off an emotional, prime-time rout of a division rival.
Dallas likely still wins, but the Panthers keep it close and cover.
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Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
Two of the league’s five unbeaten teams clash in this early battle for NFC West supremacy.
The Rams have dominated the series of late, winning eight straight — all by at least 7 points — and going 7-0-1 ATS. Much like the Cowboys, the Rams are in a prime letdown spot coming off a big home win over Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dangerous dual-threat QB Kyler Murray and the Cards, who are tied with the Bucs for the league scoring lead at 34.3 points per game, present a different kind of challenge and certainly have enough firepower to keep this one close.
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Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (-115) at Los Angeles Chargers
QB Derek Carr and the Raiders take their 3-0 record west for a Monday night division tussle with QB Justin Herbert and the 2-1 Bolts.
The Silver & Black won and covered in three of the last four meetings and in what figures to be a close game where Raiders fans will be in the majority at SoFi Stadium, go ahead and take the 3.5 points.
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