While it’s still too early to tell right now, a messed-up salary cap provides the potential for this offseason to be a wild one.
With COVID-19 limiting the number of fans in the stands throughout the 2020 season, it’s expected to wreak havoc on the 2021 salary cap. After sitting at $198.2 million last year, some projections put the 2021 salary cap around $185 million — a reduction for the first time in over a decade. Because of that unexpected drop, several teams will need to make moves just to be compliant when the 2021 league year begins.
According to Over The Cap, there would be nine teams in the negative right now if the salary cap is at the $180 million floor currently set. The New Orleans Saints are at the bottom of the league, being $70 million in the red currently if the salary cap is $180 million. Even the teams who were expected to be flush with cash in 2021 are going to be hurting. The Ravens, one of the teams that were expected to be sitting pretty, are projected to have around just $17.5 million, which is a drop in the bucket of the $35.4 million they’d have if the salary cap had even remained the same from last year to this year.
The sudden and unexpected salary-cap changes could make this offseason really interesting. Teams could be incredibly cautious this offseason, refusing to sign blockbuster deals out of fear of a repeated reduction in salary cap next offseason. Teams could also go into this offseason looking to recoup some money, either in the form of pay cuts and restructures for higher-paid players or outright cutting poor performers they normally would have taken a longer-term approach with.
That means there could be a sudden surge of first- and second-tier unrestricted free agents hitting an open market that doesn’t have the money to pay them top contracts. That could leave free agents with just two choices: Either take a cheaper one-year deal to hit free agency again in a year when there could be more money, or sign a long-term deal that is backloaded and offers less security. Neither choice is ideal for the players but the scramble could be a huge boon for teams willing to go all-in for a year or two.
Teams, like Baltimore, who are already close to winning a championship could choose to take a damn-the-torpedoes approach this offseason in an effort to make a push for a ring. Free agency is expected to be chock full of aging veterans who never got a chance to earn a ring, setting up the potential for a dream-team scenario.
Guys like Allen Robinson, J.J. Watt, A.J. Green, Everson Griffen, Ryan Kerrigan, and so many more could look to make the most of this odd offseason by signing cheap one-year deals with a Super Bowl-caliber team. In many cases, these guys have already earned extremely lucrative deals in the past and could effectively exchange a lower-value cap hit in 2021 for the best chance to win a Lombardi Trophy. If a team can manage to sell several players on that idea, it’s not out of the realm of possibility the NFL will be a little top-heavy this season with a few true Super Bowl contenders.
The question the Ravens have to ask themselves now is if they want to take that risk. They’ve been to the divisional round of the playoffs each of the last two years but have seen the offense stagnate in those games as they lack the firepower to truly compete with the league’s elite. If they could manage to woo Robinson and Green on offense and possibly even Watt on the other side, it’s hard to see how Baltimore wouldn’t be the new favorites to win Super Bowl LVI.
However, if other teams have the same idea, the Ravens might be set up to do little more than window shop in free agency as they watch top free agents sign elsewhere. Given Baltimore’s typical long-term and more cautious approach to the offseason, that’s also a very real possibility. Of course, all the potential for a crazy offseason could fizzle out as teams and agents change little if they have a good feel for what the future salary cap will bring.
We’ll have to see if any teams make that type of push or if they all remain cautious. But the potential for an insane offseason is definitely there for the adventurous and if things hit the frenzy they could, it’s going to be a very fun offseason.
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