Questions and Answers:
(Answering frequently asked questions on why the committee makes the decisions it does)
Let’s discuss…
Q: Is this the exact Top 25 you would rank?
A: No, but it’s not that far fetched, if we’re being honest.
Q: Should Alabama be in the Top 5 right now?
A: If it were me, I would not put Alabama in the Top 5, as all it had going for it was the eye test, which is now gone with the loss of Tua Tagovailoa. The committee will probably keep them at 5 this week, but I expect the Tide to miss the playoff unless utter chaos breaks out, as the group in putting Georgia at No. 4 last week.
Q: Should Oregon be in the playoff at 12-1?
A: It all depends on who is up for consideration at that point, but I would not take a 1-loss Oregon team that lost to Auburn over a 12-1 LSU or Ohio State and I don’t think the committee will either.
Q: Why is Florida above all of the Big Ten one and two loss teams?
A: Florida was ranked No. 10 last week before No. 8 Minnesota lost and the Gators beat Mizzou pretty handily on the road. The committee values Florida’s SOS and thinks the Gators are a very good team.
Q: Why is 1-loss Cincinnati, who only lost to Ohio State, so low?
A: The Bearcats are a very good team, but the committee likes consistency and dominance. Cincinnati has had to escape with a win the last few weeks and could very easily have 3 or more losses. Based on SOS and the eye-test, the committee is not that impressed with Cincinnati.
Q: But Georgia lost to South Carolina, shouldn’t that still keep them below Alabama and Oregon?
A: If you watch the tape on that game and dive deep into the numbers, it was a pure fluke. All that could have gone wrong went wrong, as South Carolina pulled off the noon game upset. However, it’s not nearly as bad a loss as 2018 Ohio State losing by 39 to Purdue or the 2017 Buckeyes getting blown out by Iowa. In addition, Georgia has Top 20 wins over Auburn, Florida and Notre Dame, with the added benefit of scheduling the Irish in non-conference play.
Remember that awesome road win win over Notre Dame in 2017? Yeah, the committee does too.
Through the years, the selection committee has changed chairmen and switched out members, but I think I have a pretty good grasp on their 2019 priorities.
From analyzing the rankings and sitting in on the media conference calls, I can tell you the committee likes Georgia a lot. Even before the road win at Auburn, the committee was ready to extinguish the flames on that awful South Carolina loss by pumping up the Florida and Notre Dame wins.
Now, I can assure you the Dawgs are 100% in with wins over Texas A&M, Georgia Tech and LSU.
I’m not quite sure what the committee will do at the No. 4, with a plethora of worthy teams on Selection Sunday, but I can tell you this… They’ll most certainly have the Dawgs at least third if they win out.
Now, as for tonight? I expect LSU to retain the stop spot over Ohio State, given the Buckeyes didn’t run up the score on Rutgers. If Ohio State ran up the score I could see it re-claiming the top spot, but I don’t think a 21-point road win is enough to bump LSU down in the eyes of the committee.
Do I think LSU would beat Ohio State on a neutral field? No, but they will still be No. 1 this week.
However, Ohio State will gain back the top spot next Tuesday if it can get past Penn State by at least 10.
Aside from turmoil well into the future, this week’s poll should not cause too much commotion, given what we are anticipating.
Without all of the drama, these are are our biggest questions heading into tonight’s show.
- Will Alabama fall behind Oregon and or Utah now that it’s lost Tua or will that happen later?
- Does the committee rank based on deserving, given Alabama thrashed Mississippi State or will it drop the Tide for losing their eye-test argument?
- Does Florida jump Penn State and Minnesota after that loss to Iowa for the Gophers?
- How far will Auburn fall after hanging tight with Georgia?
- Does LSU stay at No. 1 after almost collapsing in Oxford?
- Does Cincinnati jump Auburn or get jumped by Iowa?
- How far does Notre Dame move up after blowing out a ranked Navy team and showing an offensive presence?
- Will Indiana move to No. 25 after playing Penn State close and proving its worth? The committee sure does value its other Big Ten teams.
If you have any more questions for me on the rankings or just want to express your opinion, feel free to reach out on Twitter @JaxFryburger or by email at jackson@fryburger.com.