In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Marlon Moraes and Rob Font meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Moraes (23-7-1) is looking to get himself back into the title picture, but he has a ways to go. He had a shot against Henry Cejudo at UFC 238, but he was knocked out in the third round on June 8, 2019, and forced to regroup.
He bounced back with a nice split-decision win over Jose Aldo, who is also on this card, but it’s back to the drawing board after Cory Sandhagen knocked Moraes out just 63 seconds into Round 2 in the main event on Oct. 10, 2020. Five of the past six fights for Moraes have finished inside the distance, with three wins and two losses in those outings.
Font (17-4) heads into this one looking for a third straight win, something he has yet to do since arriving at the UFC level. His past two wins have been by unanimous decision, including his last time out over Ricky Simon on Dec. 7, 2019. The last time he had a stoppage was Jan. 19, 2018, in a knockout in Round 2 against Thomas Almeida. Font enters the octagon with a 4.5-inch reach advantage, as well as a two-inch height advantage.
He also has 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.43 for Moraes. In addition, Font leads 1.25 to 0.64 in takedown average, and 0.78 to 0.42 in submission average.
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Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.
FONT (+130) is worth a look as a short ‘dog in this one against Moraes (-155) on the 2-way line. He leads all of the key statistics, and he is also a little bit better at deflecting significant strikes, too.
It’s basically a coin-flip situation as far as the distance is concerned. Moraes has been getting plenty of stoppage results, while Font has seen each of his past three go to the judges.
I expect Font to pull off the slight upset, so go with YES (-115) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’. In addition, playing OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-125) is also a safe play, too.
Lastly, it’s a good bet to take ‘FONT BY DECISION’ (+275) for a potential nice payday.
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