Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the former champion, listing Woodley -185 and Burns +160 as of this writing.

As stated in the video attached, I believe that Woodley is the deserved favorite to win this fight. Recency bias is a real thing in this sport, as it’s easy to have Woodley’s last performance burnt into the back of your heads.

However, even if his last outing was an uninspiring one, I warn anyone who is completely writing off the former champ here. Despite my official pick, I would not be surprised if Woodley is able to detonate a right hand on an oncoming Burns’ chin. And if this battle goes long, it’s not hard to see Woodley outlasting his younger counterpart, who has shown a propensity to slow in the past.

Say what you will about Woodley’s performance against Maia, but I was impressed with improved energy management he displayed while successfully defending multiple takedown attempts (with one good arm, no less). That said, he will need that same stellar defense and more if he means to keep Burns off of him in the small cage.

With less real estate comes less room for error, as the smaller octagon makes dictating terms more arduous while simultaneously encouraging more action. So, with that in mind, I seemingly find myself siding with the fighter who produces a higher rate and variance of offense from more positions.

If Woodley shows to have his proverbial sea legs underneath him early, then this will likely be an uphill battle for Burns in almost every phase. But if Woodley isn’t able to execute any meaningful offense halfway through the first, then I suspect that we’ll see the Brazilian’s clinch offense, pace and pressure pay more and more dividends down the stretch, producing a stoppage by the end of the third round.

Prediction: Burns inside the distance

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