In a featherweight bout on the main card, Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
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Records: Swanson (28-13-0) | Dawodu (13-3-1)
Swanson has alternated losses and wins across his past 4 fights. He suffered a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss against Jonathan Martinez last time out in mid-Octobert, and all 4 of the aforementioned fights have resulted in knockouts. His last fight to go the distance was against Kron Gracie on Oct. 12, 2019.
Dawodu has also alternated losses and wins across the past 4 outings, with 3 straight unanimous decisions. The Canadian fighter has involved the judges in 5 straight outings, with his last finish coming in a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Yoshinori Horie on July 27, 2019.
Dawodu holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage and a 5.33-to-4.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The veteran Swanson has an ever-so-slight 54.81%-to-53.94% significant strikes accuracy percentage advantage. Swanson can do work on the canvas if needed, but that’s not Dawodu’s game and he hasn’t recorded a takedown at the UFC level.
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UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:31 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Swanson +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Dawodu -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +185)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -105 | No -130)
UFC on ESPN 51: Swanson vs. Dawodu picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Dawodu (-225) has a big reach advantage, and I expect him to be able to draw the veteran in and out when he chooses. Swanson (+185) will likely try to get the Canadian fighter in the clinch, looking to score points with the judges, but Dawodu is likely to be able to keep him at a distance.
However, you cannot risk more than 2 times your potential return on the favorite. Instead, I really like METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: DAWODU BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+200) for a chance to double up. I don’t think he can knock out Swanson, who is too savvy of a veteran, but I do think he will do more to wow the judges.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-250) is just too steep of a price tag, costing more than 2 1/2 times your potential return.
Instead, look to YES (-105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for a much better value. Dawodu has gone the distance in 5 consecutive bouts and has needed the judges to decide a victor in 7 of his previous 8 outings.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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