In a lightweight bout on the main card, Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 48 — also known as UFC Vegas 76 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs. Dawson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
Records: Ismagulov (24-2-0) | Dawson (19-1-1)
Ismagulov is looking to bounce back after suffering a unanimous-decision setback against Arman Tsarukyan last time out in mid-December. Since arriving at the UFC level in Dec. 2018, he has gone the distance in all 6 of his fights. His most recent victory against Guram Kutateladze last June was his only career split decision, and it was a win.
Dawson has managed an impressive 7-0-1 record since making his UFC debut against Julian Erosa in a unanimous-decision win back in March 2019. The only blemish is a draw against Ricky Glenn in October 2021. His past 2 wins have been via submission, including a 3rd-round tap against a previously-undefeated Mark O. Madsen in November.
Dawson, nicknamed “KGD”, has just 3.12 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.78 for Ismagulov. However, Dawson is much more accurate striker, landing 63.71% to just 51.45% for the Kazakh fighter.
Dawson is better in the takedown game, too, holding a 3.80-to-1.17 takedown average advantage, while recording a 34.62% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has a 1.55 submission average to his credit.
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UFC on ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs. Dawson odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Ismagulov -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Dawson -106 (bet $106 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -240 | Under +184)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -182 | No +142)
UFC on ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs. Dawson picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
The books feel this fight will be a toss-up, but I think the clear advantage goes to DAWSON (-106). The switch-stance fighter can do it in a number of ways and his versatility will serve him well in this fight.
Dawson can go toe to toe with Ismagulov, but he also is very accurate with his punches and is better in the ground game. If the American takes it to the canvas, Ismagulov could be in trouble.
As far as Method of Victory is concerned since Ismagulov has gone the distance in all 6 of his fights at the UFC level, you can’t stray from that now. Take DAWSON BY POINTS (+260) for a solid value.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-240) is just a little too expensive for my liking. I am not a giant fan of the price for FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? YES (-182), either. However, the price is a little more tolerable if you toss it into a parlay.
Playing ‘Yes’ is also more palatable if you don’t want to declare a winner but still would like some action on the bout.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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