In the light heavyweight bout on Wednesday’s main card, Ike Villanueva and Vinicius Moreira meet at UFC on ESPN+ 46 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also known as UFC Fight Island 8. The prelims kick off at 9 a.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET.
Villanueva (16-11) is looking for to bounce back after losing his past two bouts. He lost via TKO – doctor’s stoppage – last time out against Jordan Wright in just 91 seconds on the Munhoz-Edgar card Aug. 22, 2020, and he suffered a Round 2 KO/TKO against Chase Sherman May 13, 2020. In fact, each of Villanueva’s past six fights have ended via KO/TKO – he is 4-2 during the span. This will be just his third fight on the UFC label, and “Hurricane” might need a win to keep his job.
Moreira (9-4) steps into the octagon three inches taller than Villanueva, and he holds a three-inch reach advantage, too. Like Villanueva, Moreira is in desperate need of a victory as he is 0-3 since making his UFC debut. He was knocked out in Round 1 by both Alonzo Menifield and Eryk Anders, and he was submitted by Paul Craig, also in Round 1, last time out (Sept. 21, 2019). Not good. All 13 of Moreira’s fights as a professional have finished inside the distance, going 1-3 by way of KO/TKO and 8-1 via submission. His specialties are the armbar, arm triangle and rear-naked choke.
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Villanueva vs. Moreira: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:35 p.m. ET.
This is a tough fight to pick quite frankly, as neither fighter has had any modicum of success at the UFC level. However, give VILLANUEVA (-145) the nod here, as each of Moreira’s three losses have been in the first round. He just hasn’t looked ready for prime time, while Villanueva has at least shown something in his brief time with the company.
I also like VILLANUEVA BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+160) on the 7-way line, as it’s a good value. You can skip playing No (-275): “Will the fight go the distance?” prop as that’s just too much risk. However, look to OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-110) as this one should get into the latter part of the second round before we get a winner. Yes, that goes against Moreira’s history as he has been done in Round 1 in each of his three UFC level fights, but Villanueva is easily the least impressive fighter Moreira has faced during the span. He’ll hang around with the American before eventually losing again.
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