In a welterweight bout in the main event, Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 42 at Amway Center in Orlando, Fla. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC on ESPN 42: Thompson vs. Holland odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Thompson, a.k.a. “Wonderboy”, has dropped a pair of unanimous-decision fights to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad. His last fight was nearly a year ago on Dec. 18, 2021. One of the best technical strikers in MMA history, Thompson has lost a step recently. He was taken down a combined 10 times in those 2 defeats.
The good news for Wonderboy is that Holland isn’t known for being a tremendous wrestler, and this one likely isn’t going to be decided on the mat. He does have 4 wins via submission at the UFC and Bellator levels, however.
If this is a fight that goes toe-to-toe, that’s good and bad news for Thompson. However, he hasn’t had a submission or KO/TKO win since Feb. 2016, a 1st-round knockout of Jonny Hendricks. So, if Thompson wins, it will be via decision.
Holland was choked out by Khamzat Chimaev in the first round last time out at UFC 279 in Sept., snapping a mini 2-fight win streak. Each of his past 4 fights has ended via stoppage.
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UFC on ESPN 42: Thompson vs. Holland odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Thompson +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Holland -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +125 | Under -175)
- Fight to go the distance: Yes (+140) | No (-200)
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UFC on ESPN 42: Thompson vs. Holland picks and predictions
Records: Thompson (16-6-1) | Holland (23-8-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Holland (-180) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive after he was tapped out in Round 1 last time out. But Thompson won’t look to go to the ground.
This one could go either way, and it is a bit of a coin flip. Thompson hasn’t been submitted in his professional career and has won just once via submission (in his pre-UFC years). You can avoid that in the method of victory section.
Holland has managed 4 wins in the past 11 fights at the UFC level via KO/TKO. Instead, HOLLAND BY TKO/KO (+155) is the much better value here, especially at plus money.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the expensive side, but this one isn’t going the distance.
If Holland gets the expected knockout, it won’t go past 3 rounds. There are concerns about his cardio too, so if he doesn’t get the knockout there is doubt he can go the distance. It’s a win-win taking the Under here, especially if you don’t bet the 2- or 3-way line, or pick a winner via method of victory.
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