In a catch weight bout on the main card, Brendan Allen and Sean Strickland meet at UFC on ESPN+ 41 – also called UFC Fight Night 182 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Allen (15-3) heads into the octagon with tremendous accuracy with his punches, posting a 60.71 significant strikes-accuracy percentage to 36.86 for his opponent. However, he manages just 2.67 significant strikes landed per minute to 4.64 for Strickland (21-3). He likely won’t be interested in a toe-to-toe battle but will rather look to get the fight to the canvas quickly. Allen owns a 1.42 to 1.22 takedown-average advantage, and, more importantly, a 2.36 to 0.44 submission-average lead. Since arriving at the UFC level, Allen has won each of his three fights, showing off great versatility. His last fight over Kyle Daukaus was a unanimous-decision win on June 27. Prior to that he had a KO/TKO win in Round 1 over Tom Breese, and a submission victory over Kevin Holland in his company debut Oct. 18, 2019.
Strickland (21-3) is coming off a unanimous-decision victory over Jack Marshman on Halloween, his first fight following a two-year hiatus after gruesome injuries suffered in a motorcycle accident. So even though he is back after a short break, he is rather well rested. He is well motivated, too, as he was on vacation in Tennessee in early November when he received the call to fight. While two of Strickland’s past three fights have finished by stoppage, seven of his past 10 have gone the distance.
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Brendan Allen vs. Sean Strickland: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:01 a.m. ET.
ALLEN (-125) is the way to go on the 2-way line, as he can win it in a brawl, on the mat or by wowing the judges with his technical ability, if need be. Strickland (+105) won an emotional return two weeks ago, but he admittedly was stuffing himself with barbeque and enjoying vacation before he was called back for the quick return. Confidence isn’t high that he’ll return with tremendous intensity.
As such, betting ALLEN IN ROUND 2 (+830) and ALLEN IN ROUND 3 (+1400) is a good, and potentially lucrative, way to go. Sure, you will lose one end, but if the fight ends in Allen’s favor in either of the final two rounds, you’ll be well in the black. You could technically bet ALLEN IN ROUND 1 (+550), too, and still be ahead as long as he doesn’t lose, or win on points. I also like NO (+125): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 41 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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