In a lightweight bout in main event, Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 38 – also known as UFC Vegas 57 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 38 Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
Tsarukyan takes the walk to the octagon with a 2-inch reach advantage, although he does give up 3 inches in height.
After losing his UFC debut to Islam Makhachev in April 2019, he has posted 5 consecutive wins, with 3 by way of unanimous decision, and the past 2 via KO/TKO. He won his last bout, in Feb. 2022, with a 2nd-round win over Joel Alvarez.
Gamrot owns a slight 3.79-to-3.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Tsarukyan is far more accurate at 61.6% to just 50.0%.
Gamrot heads into this main event bout looking to stay hot. After losing his UFC debut against Guram Kutateladze by split decision in Oct. 2020, he has rattled off 3 straight victories via stoppage. The most recent bout was a 2nd-round KO/TKO win over Diego Ferreira in Dec. 2021. Two of the wins were by way of knockout, with the other a 1st-round submission of Jeremy Stephens in July 2021, showing his immense versatility.
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UFC on ESPN 38 Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Tsarukyan -280 (bet $280 to win $100) | Gamrot +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
- Total Rounds Over 4.5 (-145) | Under 4.5 (+105)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-117) | No (-116)
[tipico]
UFC on ESPN 38 Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot picks and predictions
Records: Tsarukyan (18-2-0) | Gamrot (20-1-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Tsarukyan (-280) will cost more than 2 1/2 times your potential return. That’s risky, especially against Gamrot (+210), who has been on a roll lately, too.
This one figures to go long into the night, and should make side bettors nervous for its entirety. In the end, TSARUKYAN BY POINTS (+145) will be the play, snapping his modest 2-bout run with a stoppage.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-145) is a good play if you’d like a little bit of wiggle room in the event of a late Round 5 finish. Yes (-117): Fight to go the distance isn’t that much less, so just stick with the Over. This fight should end via unanimous decision in favor of Tsarukyan.
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