In the main event, Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill tangle in a women’s strawweight bout at UFC on ESPN+ 35 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.
Waterson (17-8) checks into this one as a slight underdog. She has a 2½-inch reach disadvantage, and while she has a 52.86 to 49.58 significant strike-accuracy percentage, Hill (12-8) is well ahead at 5.76 to 3.31 in significant strikes landed per minute. Waterson – a.k.a. “The Karate Hottie” – also has a 1.68 to 0.47 takedown average, 50.0 to 37.5 takedown-accuracy percentage and 1.05 to 0.16 submission-average advantage. Waterson lost her last two fights by decisions, falling May 9 to Carla Esparza at UFC 249 and to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the main event on Oct. 12, 2019.
Hill – nicknamed “Overkill” – is looking to bounce back from a disappointing split-decision loss to Claudia Gadelha May 16 in Jacksonville, Fla. The defeat snapped a three-fight winning streak, her longest at the UFC level. Hill is an impressive puncher, and could be very successful as long as she can avoid going to the mat with Waterson. Hill is a perfect 5-0 via KO/TKO in 20 career pro fights, but she is 0-2 by way of the submission, and that’s an area of concern when backing the favorite.
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Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:40 a.m. ET.
The punching machine HILL (-125) should overwhelm Waterson (+105), who likes to pick and choose her spots. The only concern with picking Hill over Waterson is her ability to avoid the canvas. She has never won by way of submission, and has lost twice by tapping out.
As far as getting specific, look for this fight to finish via HILL BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+120) on the method of victory. There is a tremendous chance this fight will go the distance, which is likely why the juice is so high. Yes (-313): ‘Will the fight go the distance?’ is almost a certainty, but at the same time, that’s just too expensive for my blood.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 35 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Hill proud to be first African-American woman to headline UFC event (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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