Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 33 main card kicks off with Magomed Ankalaev and Ion Cutelaba. They’ll battle in a light heavyweight bout at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, , while the main card starts at 9 p.m. ET.
Ankalaev (13-1) looks for the same result as the last fight against Cutelaba (15-5), a first-round KO/TKO win in 38 seconds in Jacksonville, Fla., back on Feb. 29. The most exciting part of that bout might have been when the two needed to be separated before the fight even started.
These two were supposed to fight on the UFC 252 card, but the bout was pushed back after Cutelaba tested positive for COVID-19.
Three of the past four bouts for Ankalaev have ended via KO/TKO, with the Russian fighter on the winning side of all three. While he enters with a 5.29 to 3.46 disadvantage in significant strikes landed per minute, he is far more effective with a 56.88 to 39.56 significant strike-accuracy percentage. Seven of the past eight fights for Ankalaev have finished inside the distance, too.
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For Cutelaba, the 38-second knockout loss to Ankalaev was a tough one. He is still 3-2 across the past five outings, and all three of those wins were via knockout, too. This fight will definitely see a lot of fireworks early and often. Cutelaba has seen each of his past five fights finish inside the distance, with the three KO/TKO wins, the loss to Ankalaev, and a submission loss to Glover Teixeira on April 27, 2019.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:20 a.m. ET.
Ankalaev (-323) is the overwhelming favorite in this fight over Cutelaba (+255), and rightly so after his extremely rapid dismantling of the Moldovan in their last meeting. AVOID the moneyline, as you cannot justify risking over three times your potential return, and get more specific.
Look to ANKALAEV BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-125) on the 5-way line for a nicer value with less risk, or ANKALAEV BY KO/TKO or DQ (-115) on the 7-way line for a slightly better value, although it might be worth the extra juice to include the potential submission, too. Cutelaba is returning from illness, and he was roughed up by Ankalaev last time out. That’s not a good combination.
In addition, this fight isn’t going to go anywhere close to the distance. However, betting NO (-286): Will the fight go the distance? is too expensive. Try and pinpoint the rounds. Pick two at plus-money, as even though you’re guaranteed to lose one, you’ll still end up ahead when it comes in. ROUND 2 (+310) and ROUND 3 (+600) are your best bets.
To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.
Also see:
- Ankalaev on first fight with Cutelaba (MMA Junkie)
- UFC on ESPN+ 33 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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