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Vicente Luque and Randy Brown square off in a welterweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN+ 31 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 9 p.m. ET.
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Luque (18-7-1) will step into the octagon and will be staring up at Brown (12-3), who stands four inches taller. The Jamaican-born Brown also holds a 2½-inch reach advantage. The latter might negate Luque’s 5.66 to 3.41 advantage in the significant strikes landed per minute department, as well as the 53.91 to 47.99 slight advantage in the significant strikes-accuracy percentage category.
Luque – a.k.a. “The Silent Assassin” – bounced back from a loss to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson at UFC 244 (Nov. 2, 2019) with a doctor’s stoppage TKO against Niko Price last time out at UFC 249 on May 9. Despite the loss to “Wonderboy,” Luque is still a very impressive 7-1 across his past eight bouts with five KO/TKO wins and a submission victory. In fact, six of his past eight fights have ended up finishing inside the distance.
Brown has had mixed results since arriving on the scene at the UFC level. He is 6-3 since making his UFC debut Jan. 30, 2016. Brown enters on a two-bout winning streak but hasn’t won three fights in a row since winning his first seven professional fights. He has never won three consecutive fights at the UFC level. Each of Brown’s past three fights – a submission victory against Warlley Alves and KO/TKO wins over Bryan Barberena and Price, have finished inside the distance.
Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:40 p.m. ET.
LUQUE (-197) is a little on the chalky side, but he’s a good bet against Brown (+160), who has never won three fights in a row at the UFC level. If you can find another fight for a two- or three-fighter parlay, it will help lessen the risk. While Luque is at a disadvantage in height and reach, he is still a powerful puncher when he can get in close. Sometimes with lanky fighters, he can be a little disinterested in engaging, and that drives bettors up a wall. Don’t look for Luque to make this a ground-and-pound affair, either, as his last takedown attempt was in a unanimous decision loss to Leon Edwards on March 18, 2017.
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When Luque wins, it will be via KO/TKO or on points. The better bet is taking YES (+145): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? He might be a bit reluctant to get close to Brown, who has strong punching power. So Luque could work a lot in the clinch, dance around a bit and be very picky when looking for a potential kill-shot. That might mean a much longer fight, and perhaps the distance. Brown won’t be interested in that, so it will be interesting to see who dictates the pace early on.
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