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Joanne Calderwood and Jennifer Maia will meet up in a women’s flyweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN+ 31 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 9 p.m. ET.
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Calderwood (14-4) bounced back with a win against Andrea Lee last time out at UFC 242 on Sept. 7, 2019, winning by split decision. Despite the win Calderwood is still just 3-3 across her past six fights with four of the past five outings going the distance. The striker from Scotland has a 1½-inch reach advantage, leads 6.19 to 4.05 in significant strikes landed per minute and leads 47.86 to 38.15 in significant strike-accuracy percentage. She isn’t a one-trick pony, however, as she’ll go to the mat, too, posting a 1.85 to 0.25 takedown advantage.
Maia (17-6-1), the Chute Boxe team Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian at UFC 244 last time out on Nov. 2, 2019. In fact, each of her past eight fights as a professional have ended up being decided by the judges. So far at the UFC level she has posted just two wins in four fights, so she really could use a win against Calderwood to turn things around.
Also see:
Joanne Calderwood vs. Jennifer Maia betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10 p.m. ET.
CALDERWOOD (-154) is the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup, as Maia (+130) is a bit more methodical and doesn’t seem to have the power to end things early. Calderwood has won fights by decision, winning via submission against Kalindra Faria Aug. 25, 2018, and also had a KO/TKO against Valerie Letourneau June 18, 2016 at the UFC level. Calderwood can win fights in a variety of ways, while Maia only appears to be capable of winning via decision. Advantage Calderwood.
As far as distance, NO (+230): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? looks like a tremendous value. Sure, you’ll be going against the grain a little, as Maia’s past eight fights have gone the distance. But Calderwood can get it done in a number of ways and will likely be looking to get this fight to the canvas. It’s a much better value than a Yes (-323) wager on the distance. That’s just too much risk and not enough reward.
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